Kevin Warren changed the B1G forever. Where does it go next?
Kevin Warren will depart the Big Ten as the shortest-tenured commissioner in league history. In a position that no man has previously held for less than a decade, Warren is leaving for the NFL’s Chicago Bears after just 4 years.
But in that short time, Warren left an impact that’s likely to be felt forever. His decisions were among the most transformational in college sports history, though we have yet to even see that history unfold.
And like any impactful decisions, there’s good and bad in that equation.
The good isn’t up for debate. The Big Ten will be the most profitable college athletic conference in the country thanks to Warren’s handiwork.
Starting in 2024, the B1G begins a new media rights deal with FOX, CBS and NBC. It’s a coup that puts Big Ten games national TV in every time window from noon-night every football Saturday from 2024-2031. And those networks are paying a premium — $8 billion in total for 7 years’ worth of broadcast rights.
That averages out to $1.15 billion per year for the B1G. The SEC’s media rights deal, which lasts 3 years longer, brings in $710 million per year in comparison.
But that also brings us to the unpleasant side of Warren’s tenure.
It’s probable that no one has ever made a billion bucks without stabbing someone else in the back. Go re-watch The Social Network. It’s a pretty good template for billion-dollar behavior.
Warren responded to the SEC’s addition of Oklahoma and Texas by banding together an “Alliance” with the ACC and the Pac-12. These 3 conferences would somehow work in concert to mitigate the SEC’s power.
But somewhere along the line, Warren recognized he could just consolidate all that power within the B1G. He stabbed his Pac-12 partners in the back, bringing USC and UCLA into the Big Ten fold starting in 2024.
With that act, college sports as we know and appreciate it died. Warren, playing the role of Dr. Frankenstein, birthed something that will look and feel different than before.
The emphasis is no longer on regional rivalries or century-old traditions. Though it’s always been about the money to some extent, now it’s exclusively about the money. And the long-term effect that will have on college sports has yet to play itself out.
The SEC and B1G are standing pat at 16 schools a piece for the time being, but we’re entering a Cold War of brinksmanship. If either conference decides to proceed with further expansion, there will be mutually assured destruction throughout the rest of college athletics. Programs like Oregon State and Washington State, which would not be part of any B1G reach into the Pacific Northwest, balance in a precarious position.
This is what makes the selection of Warren’s replacement a critical moment in Big Ten and college sports history.
Replacing Kevin Warren is a landmark moment
Will Big Ten presidents seek someone who serves their business interests and looks to continue aggressively outflanking the SEC? Or will they find a leader who seeks to create a state of detente and looks out for the good of college sports as a whole?
There is a risk involved to either approach.
The Big Ten could assert its power further, but doing so could erode fan interest at dozens of schools across the country. And if fans realize they’re watching nothing more than a watered-down version of the NFL, they’ll choose the superior product.
But the B1G must also be cautious about selecting a candidate who is fully committed to stopping expansion. While it’s a good principle, they can’t be naive about it. Just as Warren betrayed the Pac-12, there’s little to stop SEC commissioner Greg Sankey from bringing the new Big Ten commissioner into his circle of trust and then going behind his or her back to raid the ACC’s top pickings.
It’s pretty clear Kevin Warren is going back to the place he belongs — the NFL. (He’ll remain the B1G’s commissioner through the NCAA Tournament, leaving for the Chicago Bears in mid-April.)
For better or worse, he aspired to make the Big Ten feel a bit more like the NFL. So much so that he was possibly surprised that not everyone shares that vision.
When he spoke at Big Ten Media Days last summer, Warren cast himself as a visionary. Traditionalists were just stuck in the past, supporting a product fated to go the way of Sears.
That attitude will fit in well with the Chicago Bears, who have woken up every year since 1986 hoping that it was 1985. The Bears need the jolt. Especially as they pursue a new stadium in the suburbs.
Maybe he’ll even talk the Packers into forming some kind of alliance that instead hastens their demise. Bears fans can only hope.
The Big Ten will be better off financially due to Warren’s impact. It’s up to his replacement to make sure the conference thrives in other ways.
Where does the B1G go from here? To the bank thanks to the TV deal that Warren negotiated, along with the addition of the 2 LA schools to the conference.
He got them paid. Didn’t seem to do them any good from a competitive standpoint.
??? They had 2 teams in the playoffs that lost by razor thin margins. What is your definition of “competitive”?
Your the only one seems worried.
Championships.
I see. So you don’t think LSU was competitive this season.
Big 10 is 1-4 in the playoffs across the last three seasons. That’s not very good.
So they have had 5 teams in the last 3 years of the playoffs. Sure, that doesn’t sound competitive compared to the other 120 something teams that didn’t make the playoffs in the last 3 years.
Don’t care about big 10 or nfl
He tried to shut down the sport in 2020. I think losing Justin Fields to another team scared him into having a football season.
Justin who?
He got the conference paid no doubt and brought USC/UCLA which are national brands to the Conference. But he played coward and was a hypocrite by letting his son play during C O V I D at Miss State by trying to shut down football. I guess you can’t say the word C O V I D on here anymore. So soft.
Warren was not involved in bringing USC & UCLA to the conference. Both schools made the phone calls first. He did not attract them; they wanted in. He may get credit for the TV deal but that’s his only real accomplishment as Commissioner. Also he was not liked by the Schools Presidents.
He treated it like a business that makes any CEO, executive, etc unpopular. Took care of his conference financially for the foreseeable future. The interesting thing is will the B1G squander their financial fortunes-we shall see. It’s just hard to argue that he didn’t leave the conference in better condition than it was 4 years ago. As far as college athletics overall, I don’t see what he owed to the good of the sport, he was the commissioner of the B1G, not college athletics overall. Any conference should want its commissioner to represent the well-being of the conference 1st, everything, and everyone else second. As far as changing college football, the SEC took the lead in moving to the super conferences. His approach was only different in that he went national vs regional. Though one could argue the SEC spanning from the east coast to Texas and into Missouri is hardly a regional approach.
How could the B1G squander their financial fortunes? It’s spread across member schools equally.
Just watch. They have several schools that need facilities significantly improved. They literally have stadiums that have facilities so small that teams have to bring tents for their players to get dressed. Not to mention inadequate stadium care facilities, practice facilities etc.. So where and how they will use that money, given their overall member history will be interesting
What Big 10 schools don’t have dressing rooms for the players?
Yes, that one stumped me as well. No locker rooms?
He completely mishandled the pandemic. Mass fail on his part.
Really, the demise of the a Big East started the death of regionality in the game. It could be argued that the consolidation of the Big 8 and the Southwest Conference into the Big XII gave us our first hint of TV markets over history.
What is hard to avoid noticing is that several high-profile programs with tons of previous success began to falter as realignment swept the country. Coincidence?
Who cares?
What part of “Down South” involves the Big 10?
By the way, editors, I didn’t read the article, so don’t break your arm patting yourself on the back.
Oops, got a little comma happy there.
Just a heads up, they don’t care if you read the articles. Clicking on them is all they are after.
For one, that QB of yours who transferred.
How did this guy change this conference? He just reacted to the crazy pandemic “stuff” that happened on his watch. And he did a poor job of it. Or the Big10 presidents told him what to do. Either way he was a puppet or a clown.
The billion dollar/year TV contract and the addition of UCLA and USC perhaps?
UCLA/USC was just a reaction to the SEC adding Texas and Oklahoma.
The PAC, the Big 12, and the ACC wish their commissioners had reacted that quickly so I’ll still go with it was a big thing.
Good article with the exception of the over-dramatic line on college football changing forever because of UCLA/USC to B10. This makes it seem the author has only followed college fb for a year.
Imagine being a WVU student and wanting to go watch a road football game over last ten or so years… (Iowa state closest, Lubbock, Waco etc).
Biggest problem in college football is NIL and transferring at will. SEC and B10 will be tops and continue to add schools throughout the decade. But how nutty does NIL become? Does US Sup. Ct. side with players argument they are employees of the school later this year? Will be interesting.
Got one word for USC and UCLA, “Nebraska”. More money doesn’t always mean better situation, hope Warren had their best interest in mind!
Right on Nebraska performance wise but look at Rutgers for the true impact of B10 money — campus went from dumpy buildings and facilities to incredible upgrades now that the money is flowing in. Not just sports but business school etc. anytime someone critiques a coach making x amount of state dollars I point out the impact of revenue back to school at a place like Rutgers.
Nebraska is a small population state that lost its access to Texas recruiting by leaving the BXII. That was the beginning of the end (abandoning its unique identity with the triple option didn’t help either, as they also abandoned with it the niche of recruiting those elite athletes that don’t fit in the ‘boxes’ other schools are looking for i.e. Tommie Frazier, etc. The triple was never stopped on the field, – it’s as sound an offense as any other – it just became unfashionable).
Conversely California is a huge state with plenty of talented recruits. Recruits who may now be enticed to stay in home state programs and still play in one of the 2 top conferences.
The coldest thing Warren did was start the “Alliance” with the ACC and PAC 12 to combat the SEC, while he was negotiating to bring in USC and UCLA all along. The the money the B1G is pulling in, it the SEC, the B1G, and a pretty big drop to everyone else.
As long as they get someone else that will favor Ohio State the BIG10 will be happy.
“And if fans realize they’re watching nothing more than a watered-down version of the NFL, they’ll choose the superior product.”
They always do.
But the ‘Playoffs! More playoffs! Bigger playoffs!’ contingent doesn’t get it. The money – for conferences, schools, coaches and players – comes from advertising. Advertising is driven by viewer interest. And a polar model featuring 2 mega-conferences and essentially relegating the other half of the FBS isn’t going to draw. It’s a danger to the future health of the sport.
No similarly structured competitor to the NFL has ever survived. Ever.
So why does CFB keep moving in that direction?