1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …

It’s time to start looking at the mess in College Station strictly from a value standpoint.

Where is the value now at Texas A&M? In coach Jimbo Fisher, or the players he recruited?

Because if you decide it’s with the players and not the coach — as the mounting empirical evidence continues to suggest — the simple decision is saving face or saving a program.

No one wants to admit they’re $86 million wrong. But if you’ve decided value is with the players, how can you not try to fix it?

“Self-inflicted wounds, gotta do a better job,” Fisher, the man with the Enron-sized buyout, said after Texas A&M’s 6th straight loss removed all doubt about the worst team in the SEC.

If that sounds familiar, well, it’s because we’ve heard that same mantra all along this 6-game losing streak that has taken the preseason No. 6 team in the nation all the way to rock bottom.

Only this time it was different. This time 1 of the 3 most talented teams in the SEC was playing a team that had just fired its coach and was reeling in every way imaginable on and off the field.

Auburn was barely a functional team, its quarterback (Robby Ashford) threw an interception, lost a fumble and missed 2 wide-open receivers for touchdowns. All Auburn had was a running game, and the 3rd most talented team in the SEC was still chasing points in the 4th quarter.

A decade ago, Texas A&M entered the SEC, rolled into The Plains and scored 63 points. That’s a fantasy now.

That was Johnny Manziel and a bunch of overachievers who got hot and won 11 games — and led to another overreaction by a Texas A&M administration so consumed by winning, it’s always willing to do anything to make it happen.

They gave coach Kevin Sumlin a $30 million contract extension (a ridiculous number a decade ago), one that guaranteed him every penny if he was fired at any point without cause.

A decade later, and after paying off Sumlin and throwing nearly a billion dollars into facilities renovations and upgrades, the Aggies tripled that unthinkable contract by giving Fisher a $90 million guaranteed extension.

Now here we are: the 3rd most talented team in the SEC — are you beginning to understand where the value is in College Station? — is now the worst team in the SEC. The coach whose past 4 recruiting classes were 1st, 8th, 6th and 4th (according to the 247Sports composite), can’t finish a sentence without mentioning one of these crutches:

— “That’s what happens when you’re young and inexperienced.”

— “It’s just self-inflicted wounds.”

— “The plays are there, we just have to execute and do better.”

After yet another loss, after the Aggies skulked off the field at Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn interim coach Cadillac Williams ran celebratory laps amid a delirious moment and spoke of how you can’t measure the fight in a man who has something to prove.

At the same time, Fisher was asked about this uber-talented team failing to qualify for the postseason for the first time since 2008.

“It’s the first time ever in my life, too,” Fisher said.

It’s always about Jimbo.

Only now more than ever.

2. Losing the grip

I spoke to an NFL scout who was at the Texas A&M-Ole Miss game in late October, and it removed all doubt that the message Fisher is sending isn’t getting home.

“If you line up those 2 teams, 1 physically looks like a mini NFL team, the other looks like your typical college football team,” the scout told me. “There are so many different dynamics to winning, but at the end of the day, it’s are you prepared, and how badly do you want it? (Texas A&M) got bullied on both lines of scrimmage by a team with far inferior talent. A team that wanted it.”

Fast forward to last weekend, where Texas A&M (again) was pushed around by an inferior team on the lines of scrimmage. Just like it was a week ago against Florida.

In those 3 games, the Aggies — who have recruited 18 4- and 5-star defensive linemen (including 6 5-stars) in the past 4 years — gave up 952 rushing yards to 3 programs (Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss) that haven’t recruited anywhere near the level of Texas A&M.

Two of those programs (Auburn and Florida) fired coaches, in part, because they were poor recruiters.

“Running the ball is the basic essence of football,” the scout said. “It’s hat on hat, I’m tougher than you. I could see a couple of guys who look the part but don’t play it. But a majority of the defensive front?”

Knowing all of that, maybe it’s easier to understand what happened prior to the Auburn game, when star WR Moose Muhammad III was suspended for the game.

All Fisher would say was the matter would be handled “internally.” But Muhammad tweeted after the game that he was benched for “wearing arm sleeves — something that my teammates and opponents wear frequently for protection.”

This, everyone, is a significant red flag. Why, you ask?

Because players have more power than they’ve ever had in college football. They have free movement, without the threat of being forced to sit out a transfer season.

It’s not hard to figure where this is going.

If 1 or more (or many more) aren’t happy — if they don’t want it — they’re leaving and playing immediately somewhere else. More than likely, somewhere else in the SEC.

If what Muhammad said was true — and there are certainly 2 sides to every story — that won’t sit well in a locker room that already has problems. Fisher twice this season suspended impact players from the historic No.1-ranked recruiting class.

The first round of suspensions happened before a big nonconference game against Miami in mid-September. The second was after the first loss to South Carolina.

A week later, Ole Miss ran for 391 yards on the Aggies — and the give-up officially began.

3. The Choice, The Epilogue

Fisher has built his reputation as an offensive coach. He insists the offense — last in the SEC (21.5 ppg.), and 108th in the nation — is a few plays, a few blown protections, a few missed blocks, from performing at its best.

He has started 3 quarterbacks this season and has called each a “backup” quarterback. That’s not by mistake, that’s with intention.

Translation: It’s not me, it’s the backup quarterback.

It’s spotty protection and dropped passes and wrong routes and a lack of consistency from the 3rd most talented team in the SEC.

Haynes King, the original starter, was a 4-star recruit. As was his backup, LSU transfer Max Johnson, who had a 35/7 TD/INT ratio despite 2 tumultuous seasons in Baton Rouge — but looked average in his brief time as the starter before sustaining a season-ending hand injury.

Then there’s 5-star freshman Conner Weigman, who was forced into the lineup against Ole Miss and played well. But 2 weeks later against Auburn, the results were brutal: 38 percent of his passes completed, 3.4 yards average per attempt.

Auburn led 7-0 at halftime, and the Aggies came out in the second half — after halftime adjustments — and had negative-2 yards of offense in the third quarter.

This is where we are with the evolution of Fisher at Texas A&M: The talent has never been better, the coaching has never been more questionable.

Where is the greater value? And are you willing to spend to find out?

Because firing Fisher not only costs $86 million in buyout money, it’s another $50-60 million investment for a new coach.

Do you want to save face, or save a program?

The latter might cost $140 million.

4. Learning how to win

Don’t read into it, everyone. Don’t think Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin’s anger at losing to Alabama suddenly means he thinks he can’t win big in Oxford.

Don’t think it suddenly means he’s headed to Auburn.

“I don’t really give a sh– about how many yards we had or how close the game was,” Kiffin said after the loss. “We didn’t win the game. Maybe at some other places, that’s good, or it has been good here in the past. It ain’t good enough.”

Kiffin has a better job at Ole Miss, and has better players. This isn’t about not being able to win at Ole Miss, and leaving for Auburn.

It’s about learning how to win. Or more specifically, when to take points and avoid the tempting pull of analytics.

Ole Miss took the opening kick of the 30-24 loss to Alabama, and drove to the Tide 12. Instead of kicking a 29-yard field goal, the offense tried to convert 4th-and-2 and failed.

With that short field goal, Ole Miss is driving at the end of the game to tie it at 30 and go to overtime. Instead of throwing on 4th-and-16 from the Tide 20, the Rebels are attempting a 37-yard field goal to tie the game.

That’s 29- and 37-yard field goals — high-percentage field goals — as the difference between losing and playing in overtime to win.

Not “better players” at Auburn. Not a “better” program. Not a “better chance to win.”

The Weekly 5

Five picks against the spread, brought to you by FanDuel:

  • Georgia (-22.5) at Kentucky
  • Ole Miss (-1) at Arkansas
  • Florida at Vanderbilt (+15)
  • Tennessee (-21) at South Carolina
  • Western Kentucky (+7) at Auburn

Last week: 3-2.

Season: 31-24.

6. Your tape is your résumé

An NFL scout analyzes the prospects of a draft-eligible SEC player. This week: LSU DE BJ Ojulari (6-3, 250).

“A great chaser, his pursuit (of the ball) is fantastic. He’s athletic and long and he’s a lot stronger than he looks. The comparisons I’ve heard to K’Lavon Chaisson are unfair. You’re talking about a guy (Ojulari) who has consistently played at a high level over 3 seasons, compared to a guy who played well in his final season. He has great hands and good bend, and has an explosive get-off.

“The only question is his ability to get off blocks. He has to get bigger; more weight, more strength.”

7. Powered Up

This week’s Power Poll, and 1 big thing: biggest surprise of 2022:

1. Georgia: 5 first-round draft picks lost, No. 2 in the nation in scoring defense (11.6 ppg.).

2. Tennessee: Surprise: Difference between the run defense in 2021 (60th in the nation, 148.5 ypg.), and 2022 (No. 11, 104.5 ypg.).

3. LSU: Freshman Freshman LB Harold Perkins isn’t just one of the SEC’s best players, he’s playing at an All-American level.

4. Alabama: No organically produced (see: recruiting) No. 1 receiver for the second straight season.

5. Ole Miss: Rebels added TBs Zach Evans and Ulysses Bentley through the portal, and freshman Quinshon Judkins (1,169 rush yards, 15 TD) stole the show.

6. Mississippi State: Bulldogs, in Year 3 under coach Mike Leach and QB Will Rogers, needed a signature victory — and lost to LSU, Alabama and Georgia by a combined 106-41.

7. Florida: Averaging most rushing yards (225.7 ypg.) since the 2008 national championship season (231.1 ypg.).

8. Kentucky: Lack of pass protection (39 sacks, tied for last in the SEC) has derailed passing game and elite QB Will Levis.

9. Arkansas: Alabama transfer LB Drew Sanders: 86 tackles, SEC-high 8.5 sacks, 12 tackles for loss. An All-SEC season.

10. South Carolina: The regression of QB Spencer Rattler (8 TDs, 9 INTs), who had 40 TDs and 12 INTs in 3 previous seasons at Oklahoma.

11. Missouri: No. 1 WR Dominic Lovett: from 6.7 ypc., in 2021, to 14.4 ypg., in 2022.

12. Auburn: QB Zach Calzada, the projected starter, didn’t throw a pass in the first month of the season — before having season-ending (non-throwing) shoulder surgery.

13. Vanderbilt: QBs AJ Swann and Mike Wright have a combined TD/INT ratio of 19/5.

14. Texas A&M: Where do we start? How about losing 8 of your past 9 SEC games?

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: Does Jayden Daniels leave for the NFL? — Jerome Watts, New Orleans.

Jerome:

Let’s start with this: You never know with quarterbacks. There are 96 jobs in the NFL, and a majority of the backup jobs are constantly turning over. Another factor: the NFL values quarterbacks who can stress defenses with their legs.

So if you think you can make a roster, go when you can to start earning money.

But NIL could play a role with Daniels, who isn’t ready to leave for the NFL. He’s still a raw thrower, and he’d benefit from another full season under OC Mike Denbrock and coach Brian Kelly — and can earn NIL revenue in the process.

Best guess is Daniels stays another season in Baton Rouge. When I asked an NFL scout last week where Daniels would be selected, he responded, “Late rounds. He definitely needs to stay in school.”

If Daniels stays, that could change the LSU quarterback room. Currently, LSU has Daniels, redshirt freshman Garrett Nussmeier and 5-star freshman Walker Howard. LSU also has commitments from 4-star quarterbacks in the 2023 and 2024 recruiting classes.

Daniels staying at LSU for 2023 could push Nussmeier — who nearly won the starting job in fall camp — into the transfer portal. There would be no shortage of teams interested in Nussmeier, including a few in the SEC (Florida, Auburn, Kentucky, South Carolina).

9. Numbers

74.2. Football is a situational game, and quarterbacks who can thrive in specific pass situations are those who typically win big games.

Case in point: Georgia QB Stetson Bennett. In 3rd down and 4-to-9 yards to go — the toughest throws in a game — Bennett is completing 74.2 percent of his passes.

But when you dive deeper into the situational throws, the numbers are more impressive. Bennett has completed 26-of-35 passes in 3rd and 4-9 to go, and 22 of those completions went for first downs.

That means 63 percent of the time, Bennett completes the toughest throws in the game for a first down. Moreover, 9 of those completions went for 15-plus yards, and 2 for 25-plus.

10. Quote to note

Alabama coach Nick Saban: “I think (players) have a lot of pride in what the standard of playing at Alabama is. And they were challenged to play to that standard, to take it personal.”