Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State: Final thoughts and a prediction

Jimbo Fisher was delighted to look ahead at the Texas A&M schedule following a shocking home-field loss to Appalachian State. He saw 2 top-15 teams in back-to-back weeks. No motivation needed from him to get the Aggies fired back up. Two big games, 2 ranked opponents. That’s all the fuel he needed to get his team motivated and ready to go again.

And the Aggies responded with impressive victories in both, albeit a decisive win over an overrated Miami team that preceded the triumph last week over Arkansas in the SEC opener.

Things are different this week, though. The Aggies hit the road to visit Starkville and a Mississippi State team they should beat, but won’t if they fall back into the passive mode that resulted in an embarrassing loss to the Mountaineers.

The Bulldogs are an inexplicably 3.5-point favorite in this one. Home-field advantage, I guess. Cowbells, it would appear, are just that important. They certainly have the edge at quarterback with SEC leader Will Rogers calling the shots. Maybe it isn’t quite as inexplicable as first thought.

Here are some final thoughts heading into the game on Saturday, and then a prediction.

Strength vs. strength

The aforementioned Rogers is once again leading the SEC in passing. He’s averaging 346.5 yards per game. That’s 2nd in the nation to only Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. (347.0), the Indiana transfer.

But a closer look reveals a more telling picture. He threw for 400-plus against nonconference foes Memphis and Bowling Green. Both games were at home. On the road at Arizona, Rogers threw for 313 yards, and at LSU he managed just 214.

Last year, Rogers torched Texas A&M for 408 yards, 1 of 4 400-plus games in 2021. Oddly enough, all 4 games were on the road. Not all 4 were victories, either. In fact, the Bulldogs split those games right down the middle, going 2-2. One of those victories was against the Aggies, a 26-22 decision at Kyle Field.

Point being, a big day for Rogers doesn’t necessarily guarantee a victory for Mississippi State.

The other point being, the Aggies’ secondary is a year wiser. It’s a veteran group that will no doubt be prepared, anxious and angry come Saturday, looking to avenge the poor performance from last season.

While Rogers is obviously the strength of the Bulldogs’ team, it’s the Aggies’ secondary that could be considered the strength of a defense that ranks 3rd in the SEC against the pass, allowing an average of 153.3 yards per game on a defense that is 8th in the nation, yielding just 11.8 points per game.

It will be interesting to see who flinches first on Saturday.

Who picks up the slack for Ainias Smith?

The terrible news came early in the week that Smith, Texas A&M’s top player on offense, suffered a lower leg injury in the Arkansas game and will be lost for the year. Smith led the Aggies in receiving yards in 2020 and was 2nd on the team last season. He currently leads the Aggies’ receiving corps with more than twice the number of yards (291) than anyone else on the team.

It’s a major blow to the Aggies’ offense, and it will be up to a group of freshmen and sophomores to pick up the slack. Freshmen Donovan Green and Evan Stewart were main targets for quarterback Max Johnson last week in Smith’s absence. Each caught 3 passes. They totaled 86 yards and 1 touchdown.

Those could be Johnson’s main targets again on Saturday, along with Devon Achane out of the backfield. It should be interesting to see what Aggies OC Darrell Dickey draws up, and how effective the run game can be with Achane against the Bulldogs’ defense.

Will Texas A&M bend and break?

The Aggies have given up a lot of yards on defense but have managed to hold the fort in the red zone. In 12 trips by the opposition to the red zone this season, Texas A&M has allowed just 3 touchdowns.

That’s elite defense when it counts, but will it continue on Saturday against Rogers and a Mississippi State offense that has converted 12 TDs in 14 total trips to the red zone this season? That very well could be what this game comes down to.

Prediction: Texas A&M 16, Mississippi State 14

This one may get ugly. The Aggies will struggle on offense and take any points they can get — field goal, safety, defensive score like last week, whatever. The defense will have to carry the day again. They’ll need to pressure Rogers. LSU sacked him 4 times in its 31-16 victory in Tiger Stadium a few weeks back. The Aggies will need that kind of performance, plus a turnover or 2 to keep the Bulldogs out of the end zone.