Florida kicks off the SEC’s bowl season on Saturday when the Gators take on No. 14 Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl (2:30 p.m., ESPN).

Florida needs a win to avoid consecutive losing seasons for the 1st time since 1978-79. A win would also make Billy Napier the 5th Gators head coach since 1980 to win his 1st bowl game at Florida, joining Charley Pell, Urban Meyer, Will Muschamp and Dan Mullen in accomplishing that feat.

Meanwhile, Oregon State is seeking a victory to close just the 3rd 10-win season in the program’s 105 years of football. The Beavers finished the regular season 9-3, with a thrilling comeback win over Oregon to put them in position to complete a 10-win campaign under Jonathan Smith, who is in his 5th season as head coach at his alma mater.

The Gators face long odds, at least according to their Las Vegas hosts. Florida is a double-digit underdog in a bowl for the 1st time in program history, and Saturday’s game marks the 1st time since the 1987 Aloha Bowl (a 20-16 loss to UCLA) that Florida has entered a bowl game as more than a 1-touchdown underdog. Given both the quality of Oregon State and the absence of 3 of Florida’s top players in consensus All-American offensive lineman Cyrus O’Torrence (opt-out, NFL Draft), defensive captain Ventrell Miller (opt-out to walk in his graduation ceremony) and starting quarterback Anthony Richardson (opt-out, NFL Draft), the line makes sense. To win, the Gators will have to overcome personnel losses and play their best game of the year — both possible, though hardly probable.

Here are 3 matchups that will define the Las Vegas Bowl.

Oregon State’s outstanding offensive line against Florida’s leaky run defense

Smith, the Pac 12 Coach of the Year, has built a team in his image. A former walk-on quarterback who through toughness and grit became a starter and led Oregon State to an 11-1 season in 2000, Smith has no tolerance for a lack of toughness. Oregon State is physical and imposing on both sides of the line of scrimmage, and it ended its season just a handful of plays from being 11-1.

It starts up front offensively, with 3 All-Pac 12 offensive linemen in Joshua Gray, Taliese Fuaga and Brandon Kipper. That trio anchors a group that ranked 27th nationally in rushing offense, 31st in yards per carry and 28th in my success rate metric (out of 75 teams), which measures the percentage of plays that can be deemed a “success” based on yards gained given a certain down and distance. They pave the way for a dynamic duo of running backs in Deshaun Fenwick and Pac 12 Freshman of the Year Damien Martinez.

Fenwick, a South Carolina transfer who hails from Bradenton, Fla., was not recruited by the Gators. You can bet he’ll remember that on Saturday. He’s a powerful runner who leads the Beavers in yards after contact.

Martinez led the Beavers in rushing this season, with 970 yards at a 6.1 yards-per-carry clip. He’s explosive in the 2nd level, and if Florida struggles to fit run gaps, it could be a long afternoon for the Gators. While Martinez is horrifyingly wrong about Whataburger being better than In-N-Out (see this tragic take below), the freshman will certainly be an issue for the Florida run defense, which ranks a dismal 101st in the country.

Making matters worse for the Gators, Florida allows an average of 5.4 — yes, 5.4 — yards per carry when Miller doesn’t play. Compare that to the 4.1 when Miller is on the field, and you get an idea of the challenge facing the Gators.

To offset that challenge, the Gators will have to compete against 1 of the Power 5’s better offensive lines, led by Kipper, who will be playing his final collegiate game in his hometown, having attended Archbishop Gorman just a few miles from Allegiant Stadium.

In 2 games against run defenses ranked in the 100s this season (Arizona State and Colorado), Kipper and the Oregon State offensive line dominated. The Beavers averaged 246 yards per game against those opponents, scoring 6 rushing touchdowns on their way to blowout wins. The Beavers are embracing the challenge of doing it again, this time against an SEC defense.

“The chance to come back home and play my last game here, that’s everything,” Kipper told the media this week. “It’s another opportunity to impose our will on a game. We will try to do that. To have the type of season we’ve had — to finish it the right way against a quality opponent we have a lot of respect for in a big-time place — what a great thing.”

Florida WR Ricky Pearsall vs. Oregon State CB Rejzohn Wright

The best pure 1-on-1 matchup of the game?

Probably Pearsall, who eats in 1-on-1 coverage, against Oregon State’s All-Pac 12 corner Wright. Pearsall led the Gators in receiving yards and receptions in 2022, and he was marvelous against FSU and its top-10 pass defense, hauling in 5 passes for 148 yards and 2 touchdowns. A fluid route runner, he is tough to jam due to his great footwork, and the Gators do a nice job of lining him up all over the field to exploit favorable matchups.

Pearsall is familiar with the Beavers and Wright as well, having battled Wright last season while with Arizona State. Pearsall won 2 of the 4 1-on-1 battles with Wright in that game, and the 2 will reunite Saturday. Wright’s 9 pass breakups led the Beavers, and he added 2 interceptions on his way to All-Pac 12 honors. The former “Last Chance U” star has outstanding athleticism, and it’s why he’s the best 1-on-1 coverage corner the Beavers have, as well as an electric playmaker.

This will be a fun matchup between 2 players with NFL Draft potential in 2023 and 2024.

The Florida run game and reshuffled offensive line vs. Oregon State’s undersized front

Florida’s path to victory is narrow, but it involves playing keepaway and wearing down an Oregon State defense that, while formidable, is undersized up front. The Beavers don’t generate a huge push, but they have excellent linebackers, including Florida transfer Andrew Chatfield Jr. and All-Pac 12 middle linebacker Omar Speights, who fit gaps and play disciplined, assignment football. Their starting defensive tackle, Simon Sandberg, weighs in at 290, and he’s the biggest body the Beavers have up front — unless defensive coordinator Trent Bray plays Thomas Sio, a project who has played sparingly but adds beef at 370 pounds.

Florida has run effectively on most everyone, save its miserable afternoon in Nashville when it oddly elected not to try to run the ball. The Gators rank 16th nationally in rushing offense, 3rd in yards per rush and 10th in my success rate rushing metric. Florida also has 2 runners — Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne — who are ranked in the top 50 nationally in explosive run plays (runs of 10 yards or more). Etienne is a flat-out gamebreaker, and he has had touchdown runs of 40 yards or more in 2 of Florida’s past 3 games.

The Gators, however, will play Oregon State without 2 key pieces of their run game.

The first, Richardson, may matter less than people think, given Richardson’s reluctance to run over the final 3 weeks of the season as he neared a decision about his NFL future. Still, the threat of Richardson on the ground did occupy linebackers, and Jack Miller III poses no such threat.

The bigger — literally and figuratively — issue for the Gators will be the absence of Torrence. A monster of a man, Torrence graded out as the nation’s best run blocker in 2022. He has opted out of the bowl, and making matters worse, his backup, Richie Leonard IV — a capable player who featured in 11 games for the Gators this season — is injured and will miss the game. That means Florida will start Kamryn Waites in Torrence’s spot. Waites, a 375-pound load who transferred with Torrence from Louisiana, is a fascinating prospect with huge upside, but this will be the 1st meaningful football he has played in college. Playing well and filling in for an All-American against a top-20 defense? That’s a tall order. But it’s a matchup that will help define this football game.