Predicting the top 10 for the third Playoff poll of 2022
We’ve reached single digits.
That is, I believe there are only 9 teams that can reach the Playoff, and even that feels like a bit of a stretch. Ole Miss, Oregon and UCLA all suffered that dreaded second loss and eliminated themselves from Playoff contention.
That means these 9 teams are the ones that still have a Playoff path:
- UNC
- Clemson
- USC
- LSU
- Tennessee
- TCU
- Michigan
- Ohio State
- Georgia
And I say that as someone who believes that the ACC Championship winner likely is already toast, barring some chaos down the stretch. USC got a key break with Oregon losing to Washington because it makes Oregon-Utah essentially a Pac-12 semifinal game, though the Trojans still have to win at UCLA, vs. Notre Dame and then beat the likely winner of that game … which still might not be enough.
As for everyone else, the odds seem at least somewhat favorable. Well, assuming that winning football awaits.
Here’s what I believe Tuesday night’s top 10 will look like in the third edition of the Playoff poll:
10. Oregon
We know that the selection committee valued the Ducks’ post-Georgia response. Hence, why they had a top-6 spot with a legitimate Playoff path heading into Week 11. Then Washington happened. Or rather, Dan Lanning’s inexperience happened. Did that 4th down attempt ruin Oregon’s season? Possibly. Whatever the case, they’ll likely still come in ranked ahead of 1-loss UNC, which doesn’t have a win against a current AP Top 25 team.
9. Clemson
You can spin Clemson any way you want. If your narrative is pro-Clemson, you can point to the fact that the Tigers have 5 wins against Power 5 teams that have a winning record. That’s tied with Georgia and Tennessee for the most among the contenders. If your narrative is anti-Clemson, you could point to the fact that their best win is a 6-point win at 3-loss Florida State, which is now the Tigers’ lone win against a current AP Top 25 team. Given what the selection committee has told us about UNC, it’s fair to say there’s not a marquee win left on that slate for a 1-loss team that was pounded at Notre Dame.
8. Alabama
The Tide’s Playoff chances died in Death Valley, so this is merely about whether Tennessee and LSU will have a win against a current top-10 team on the résumé. Beating a top-15 team on the road like Alabama did at Ole Miss should certainly help that cause. Alabama continuing to win is bad news for the Michigan/Ohio State loser, as well other potential 1-loss teams like a 1-loss TCU, 1-loss USC and 1-loss Clemson. All of those teams could head into Selection Sunday without a win against a current top-10 team while LSU and Tennessee would have a unique flex.
7. USC
I wholeheartedly disagree with this ranking, but again, this is about what I believe the selection committee will do, not what I would do. The Trojans were the most overrated team in last week’s poll by somehow earning that No. 8 spot while UCLA was 5 spots behind its in-state rival even though it was clear who had the better résumé (I realize that’s no longer the case). In case you didn’t know, the Trojans:
- A) Have a best win of at 3-loss Oregon State … and it was 17-14
- B) Have 2 wins vs. Power 5 teams w/ winning records (fewest among contenders)
- C) Have an average scoring margin vs. P5 of +12.5
- D) Have been within 2 scores vs. 6 of 8 Power 5 foes
- E) All the above
It’s “E.” It’s always “E.”
6. LSU
As complicated as this year has been at times, you could argue that things have never been more clear. Survive and advance. Just win games and don’t worry about those other external factors. We know that by virtue of coming in at No. 7 last week and now with that Georgia matchup in the SEC Championship official, LSU undoubtedly still has a path with 3 games to play. Four wins against Power 5 teams with winning records helps and while “quality losses” are overrated, maybe there’s something to be said for Florida State looking like a potential top-15 team heading into Selection Sunday. For now, though, LSU should slide into Oregon’s spot.
5. Tennessee
Do I think style points matter for the Vols? I don’t think they can hurt now that we know officially that it’ll be an idle conference championship weekend. Will the selection committee put the Vols into the field because they beat Mizzou by 38 instead of by 31? Nope. And in case you were wondering, yes, TCU going on the road and beating Texas as a touchdown underdog will further establish why the unbeaten Horned Frogs will be ranked in the top 4. Speaking of that …
4. TCU
Here’s a fun little side-by-side:
I’d rank TCU ahead of Michigan. And if your argument continues to be “well I know who the better team is,” than I challenge you tell me why your personal evaluation hasn’t made you a millionaire. I’ll continue to look at the résumé. It hurts TCU that with 2 weeks left, every other Big 12 team has at least 3 losses. Hence, why the margin for error is slim. But at the very least, the selection committee continuing to rank the Horned Frogs in the top 4 — something that’ll be even more obvious after the win at Texas — tells us that they’re 3 wins away from pulling off arguably the most surprise Playoff invitation to date.
3. Michigan
Here’s the good news for Michigan. Being 1 of 9 teams with a Playoff path beats the heck out of whatever 2020 was. The Wolverines could be 1 of 2 teams that earn a repeat Playoff bid this season, which is something that only Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma have accomplished. All the Wolverines have to do to guarantee that is win out. The bad news is that a potential 1-loss résumé could have a lot of holes in it. Outside of that, where are the quality wins? A 7-point home win vs. 4-loss Maryland? A 13-point road win at 4-loss Iowa? The Wolverines could beat Illinois, lose to Ohio State and go into Selection Sunday without a division title and just 1 win against a current ranked foe. That’s an issue.
2. Ohio State
The Buckeyes’ potential 1-loss résumé would be interesting. Unlike Michigan, Ohio State actually scheduled a legitimate nonconference game against Notre Dame, which has aged better than it originally appeared. The average scoring margin against Power 5 competition (+27.9) is second to only Georgia (+30.0) and nobody has more wins against current AP Top 25 teams than Ohio State (Georgia, LSU, Ohio State, TCU and Tennessee all have 2). But like Michigan, the Big Ten hasn’t done the Buckeyes a lot of favors with having another 2-loss team outside of Penn State. Notre Dame and Iowa having midseason turnarounds could prove vital if Ohio State finds itself on the outside looking in during conference championship weekend.
1. Georgia
No debate. Pick your data point. Wins vs. current AP Top 25 teams? Georgia is in a 5-way tie for first with 2 of those (among CFP contenders). Wins vs. Power 5 teams with a winning record? Georgia is in a 3-way tie for first with 5 of those. Average scoring margin vs. Power 5 competition? Georgia is by itself in first with +30.0. The Oregon loss might’ve been a slight setback to the Dawgs’ overall résumé, no other remaining unbeaten can claim that they dominated a pair of current AP top-15 teams. A 12-0 regular season would all but lock up a Playoff berth heading into the SEC Championship, just like 2021. The better question is if 2022 will finish like 2021 did.