First and 10: Now the real fun begins for Big Game Stetson Bennett
1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …
He heard for a week he wasn’t worthy of being mentioned with the best players in college football. So Stetson Bennett flew back from New York City and the Heisman Trophy ceremony and left disbelievers a subtle warning on his Instagram timeline.
Fun week. Real season starts now.
If we’ve learned anything from this 3-year kaleidoscope of a ride from walk-on to national championship quarterback and everything between, it’s this: When the big game arrives, Big Game Stetson Bennett shows out.
The wildly-hyped season-opener against Oregon was over before halftime. So was the first big SEC test at South Carolina.
Then someone had the audacity to rank Tennessee No. 1, and I know this is going to shock you, but it was over by halftime, too.
The SEC Championship Game? Over by halftime.
Bennett in those 4 big games: 1,183 yards passing, 13 TDs (3 rush), 0 INTs.
His 197.6 QB rating in those games is 21.3 points higher than NCAA season leader CJ Stroud of Ohio State (176.3).
“He loves proving people wrong,” says Georgia tight end Brock Bowers.
Guess who’s getting ready to do it again in this week’s Playoff semifinal against Ohio State?
We’ve all tried to count him out. The coaching staff at Georgia did, too.
Threw him on the scout team, and he responded by giving the defense better looks than they’d seen all year.
Told him it was going to be a long haul, against the odds, to start. So he transferred to a junior college and came back a year later and was told, again, it wasn’t going to happen.
He has started 29 games since. He’s 26-3 as a starter, and has won 23 of his past 24 games.
“We kept thinking he wasn’t good enough, and he kept proving us wrong,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said. “Over and over and over again.”
This is the guy you’re going mock for being a Heisman candidate? This is the guy who didn’t deserve to be on the stage in New York City because he didn’t have the gaudy numbers of Caleb Williams or CJ Stroud, or the story of lifting a losing program to the Playoff like Max Duggan?
This is the guy that Twitter, the all-time cesspool of dereliction and disinformation, proclaimed is a product of the Georgia defense?
No matter what the elite Georgia defense does, no matter how it affects the opposing offense, the Bulldogs still must score and dictate tempo. Because the more points scored by the Georgia offense, the more opposing teams must work against a slim margin of error against the Georgia defense.
That translates to taking chances and making mistakes, and playing right into the teeth of the Georgia defense. So yeah, the offense and defense at Georgia are equally important — especially in big games.
That’s where Bennett thrives.
Why would we not expect the same thing against Ohio State?
2. The passing problem
There are 2 ways to look at this: The LSU game was an anomaly, or if LSU did that to the Georgia pass defense, what will Ohio State — with Stroud and an elite group of receivers — do?
“You can’t look at numbers and make that blanket statement,” an SEC offensive coordinator told me. “The defense is playing ‘don’t get behind me (coverage),’ and giving the offense whatever they want in front of them. If you can complete passes, you’re getting production.”
LSU QB Jayden Daniels threw for 208 yards in the first half of the SEC Championship Game, and did so with an ankle sprain. He hit a big throw in the first quarter that Kayshon Boutte turned into a 53-yard touchdown and a 7-7 tie.
Then the Georgia offense ripped off a string of touchdown drives, and the defense did what it does best: pressure and affect the quarterback, and get 3-and-outs.
No matter the struggles against LSU (or the how and why it happened), Georgia won’t change what it does for Ohio State. The Bulldogs like to play 2 safeties high and rush 4 or 5, or 6 occasionally.
They typically get home with 4 or 5 in pass rush, which contributes to their success in coverage in the back end. Once it got to 35-7 against LSU, the focus slipped and the defense waltzed through a rout.
Or that’s what they’d like you to believe.
Though there’s too much empirical data to disagree with that idea — look what the Georgia defense did to the passing games of Oregon, Tennessee and Mississippi State — Ohio State will be the most dynamic and disciplined pass offense Georgia has faced. Even though it played the entire season without star WR Jaxon Smith-Njiba, the Buckeyes have 3 legit threats in the passing game (All-American Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka, Julian Fleming).
The last time Georgia played a passing game with that many threats, it held Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt, Cedric Tillman and Bru McCoy to 19 catches for 169 yards (8.9 ypc.) and 0 touchdowns.
3. Beyond the Playoff
Two significant personnel additions hidden by early national signing day moved Georgia a step closer to a potential 3-peat, and is bad news for everyone in college football.
Rara Thomas of Mississippi State and Dominic Lovett of Missouri, 2 of the SEC’s best receivers in 2022, are transferring to Georgia.
It’s the first of what could be handful of portal additions for Georgia, which not only recruits as well or better than anyone in the nation, it also takes what it needs out of the portal.
Who does that sound like? That’s right, everyone, Georgia has completed the final step to replicating what Nick Saban pulled off (with Kirby Smart as his No. 1 assistant) at Alabama: Its biggest opponent is itself.
Alabama doesn’t lose because it doesn’t have players or every other advantage. It typically loses games by its own doing, with an unforced error or turnover.
That’s why all of Saban’s postgame press conferences after a loss sound like a petulant coach refusing to acknowledge the other team winning the game. It’s what Alabama did wrong, not what the opponent did right.
Saban signed 5 critical players from the portal before this season, and lost 2 games on the last play of the game. Alabama, like Georgia, would be favored in every possible Playoff game.
Don’t expect Georgia to stop with Thomas and Lovett. There will be more additions from the portal. Smart and his staff tried to add players from the portal last season, but the only match was former Oklahoma QB Caleb Williams — who chose USC.
And this brings us all the way back to Bennett, who was counted out once again at the end of last season. Williams chose another school and won the Heisman.
Bennett stayed at Georgia and gets another chance to prove everyone wrong — even the Georgia staff. Again.
Go ahead, bet against him.
4. Big Orange hype
It has only been a handful of practices, and already 5-star signee QB Nico Iamaleava is turning heads at Tennessee.
“He understands when something happens, why it’s happening,” Tennessee coach Josh Heupel said. “That’s only going to continue to heighten.”
The quarterback room at Tennessee for 2023 is essentially down to 2 players: Joe Milton and Iamaleava. And Milton could still enter the transfer portal, depending on how he plays in the Orange Bowl against Clemson.
Milton has played well in his only start since taking over for injured starter Hendon Hooker. But that game was against Vanderbilt, against the worst defense in the conference.
This game against Clemson will be a much better barometer for how far Milton has come since he began 2021 as the starter, before giving way to Hooker.
Milton has had problems with accuracy and making quick decisions with the ball, 2 things Iamaleava excelled at in high school. While high school and college are different animals, it hasn’t taken long for Iamaleava to set his own bar high.
“Obviously the raw skills are there. The arm talent, and he’s extremely athletic and explosive inside the pocket,” Heupel said. “In a short amount of time, we’ve been able to see some of those things already.”
5. The Weekly 5
Picks against the spread, special potential Playoff national championship matchup edition:
- TCU (+16.5) vs. Georgia
- Michigan (+8.5) vs. Georgia
- TCU (+10.5) vs. Ohio State
- Michigan (+3.5) vs. Ohio State
6. Your tape is your resume
An NFL scout analyzes the draft prospects of an SEC player. This week: Alabama CB Brian Branch (6-0, 193).
“He has NFL measurables right now. A solid, strong frame, and he can run. Great closing speed. He’s long and his hands are strong in coverage. A tough, active guy in run support. His ball skills are strong, he high points and fights. The only problem is can he do it consistently?
“There were times when it just didn’t happen. If you can get him engaged consistently, he can be a Day 1 guy — slot or outside. He has the skills and temperament to excel in man (coverage), and his route knowledge is strong in zone.”
7. Powered Up
This week’s Power Poll, and 1 big thing: The New Year’s resolution.
1. Georgia: Keep Todd Monken as OC, and find a No. 1 receiver for next year’s starting quarterback.
2. Alabama: Make the offensive line a priority again through high school recruiting (late flip of OT Kadyn Proctor was critical) and the portal.
3. Tennessee: Don’t cloud the issue: play Iamaleava.
4. LSU: Get QB Jayden Daniels with a personal QB coach for the offseason. Elite Daniels = elite LSU.
5. South Carolina: No matter the quarterback, Gamecocks must get better on the offensive line.
6. Mississippi State: New coach Zach Arnett needs an OC. Former North Texas coach (and Mike Leach disciple) Seth Littrell would be a perfect fit.
7. Ole Miss: Get more active (with size and speed) in the defensive front seven.
8. Kentucky: The quarterback has arrived (NC State transfer Devin Leary). Time to work on the offensive line through the portal.
9. Arkansas: Rebuild the back end of the pass defense.
10. Missouri: Tried last year to add a difference-maker at QB. Can’t miss out this time around.
11. Florida: Which problem gets addressed first? Quarterback — Graham Mertz isn’t the answer. Expect another portal addition.
12. Auburn: The quicker the buy-in, the quicker the winning. That, and a transfer portal quarterback (a thrower).
13. Texas A&M: Don’t ignore 24 players leaving for the portal. Change what you’re doing to reach/teach players.
14. Vanderbilt: Find defensive linemen of impact in the transfer portal.
8. Ask and you shall receive
Matt: I’m starting to get concerned about all the Florida players entering the portal. These guys all can’t be culture problems. Should I be panicking? — Dan Cason, Miami.
Dan:
First let’s start with the obvious: 19 players in the portal (as of Dec. 24) is an inordinate amount. There’s no way it can be seen as anything else.
But let’s look at the underlying issue: You can’t have performances like Utah and South Carolina, and at the same time, not even show up against Kentucky and USF. That’s an immature team and shows a significant disconnection between players and staff.
Billy Napier doesn’t have time to pamper players. If they’re not invested, they have to go. Because if he doesn’t win, he’s next to go.
He doesn’t have time to build through high school recruiting classes (that’s a 2-3 year lift), so recruiting from the transfer portal is critical. It’s also a crapshoot. There generally are 2 reasons players are in the portal: They’re just like the players currently leaving Florida, or they’re experienced players looking for 1-shot deals (NIL and championship).
Portal players also have to fit the culture Napier is trying to build in the locker room. We saw it play out this season at TCU, USC, Florida State, Washington and LSU.
Those teams loaded up on transfer portal players, but also had the most important ingredient to any program build: a difference-maker at quarterback. Max Duggan, Caleb Williams, Jordan Travis, Michael Penix Jr. and Jayden Daniels.
Napier’s rebuild — if it works or doesn’t — is about the quarterback (as it is at every school). If you get a difference-maker (through high school or portal recruiting), the program turns.
If you don’t, you‘re out of a job in 3 years.
3. Numbers
2. Across the board, KJ Jefferson’s numbers from 2021 to 2022 were nearly identical with 1 exception: games played.
Jefferson missed 2 games this season and decided to return to Arkansas instead of leaving for the NFL to improve more as a thrower and enter the draft after the 2023 season when there won’t be as many draft-eligible quarterbacks.
Williams, Drake Maye of North Carolina and Michael Penix Jr. of Washington are likely the top 3 quarterbacks in that draft. It’s possible Jefferson could move into the top 4 or 5 if he continues to develop under Arkansas OC/QBs coach Kendal Briles.
“He has to see and react better. See the field, make the throw — it’s a quick process,” an NFL scout told me. “He’s getting more accurate on those intermediate throws, and that’s important. But the entire process has to get quicker.”
10. Quote to note
Georgia QB Stetson Bennett on why he plays so well in big games: “It’s all on you. I don’t want to be the reason we don’t win the game.”