Georgia football: Ranking teams most likely to end Dawgs' back-to-back title bid
The new College Football Playoff rankings were released on Tuesday night, and there were no surprises.
Georgia is No. 1, Ohio State and Michigan sitting at 2 and 3, respectively, and TCU at 4. If the Dawgs win out in the regular season, they’re in (likely) no matter what. If the Horned Frogs win out entirely, they’re in. The winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game? In.
But there are still other contenders.
Tennessee looms at No. 5, looking very likely to sneak into the top 4 after Ohio State and Michigan face off. LSU is suddenly in the mix, sporting a real chance to become the first 2-loss team to make the CFP. And USC is bringing up the rear, holding out hope for just a little bit of chaos in the season’s final weeks.
Now, which one do you want (or more accurately, not want) the Dawgs to play? Which teams scare you? Which teams give you no concerns at all?
Below are my rankings from most concerning to least concerning for Georgia in potential matchups in the CFP (or, in the case of LSU, in the SEC Championship Game).
1. Tennessee
Say what you will about me. Call me the Boy Who Cried Smokey. Remind me how wrong I was the last time Georgia played Tennessee. Gently tell me how little I know about college football.
I know what happened a couple of weeks ago. I know how dominant the Dawgs looked. All that aside, the Vols are still the 1 team that gives me the most pause about Georgia’s repeat aspirations.
I think it’s clear from the 1st showdown that the Dawgs are a better team right now. I think it’s clear that they had answers for Tennessee’s offense that no other team has come close to having so far this season.
But still, rematches are unpredictable. No one knows that better than Georgia.
Remember 12 months ago? When the Dawgs were absolutely manhandled by Alabama in the SEC Championship Game?
That was it.
The season was over.
There was no chance that Georgia was going to fair better against the Tide in a rematch between the teams in the College Football Playoff.
And then it did.
And the rest was history.
There is just something about this potential matchup that leaves me thinking that the last chapter of this rivalry for 2022 hasn’t been written yet. It’s for all the reasons I gave 2 weeks ago in anticipation of a challenge from the Vols — Hendon Hooker, the wide receivers, the versatility — but it’s mainly just because I don’t like rematches.
2. Ohio State
The Buckeyes would be No. 1 on this list if not for the injuries that have stacked up throughout the season. That this team is still undefeated and ranked No. 2 in the latest CFP poll is a testament to its resilience (and its relative lack of a challenge on the schedule).
C.J. Stroud is an elite quarterback who is the current betting favorite to win the Heisman. Even with the injuries, Ohio State has a balanced offensive attack that can get even better should TreVeyon Henderson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba reemerge from their injury purgatory.
The defense can get pressure — 26 sacks to its name this season — though Georgia’s would be the best offensive line it would face all season.
Really, it all comes down to health, though.
If the Buckeyes get to full strength, they are absolutely good enough to run with the Dawgs in a potential CFP matchup.
3. LSU
Of all the teams, this one is the hardest for me to figure.
On paper, Georgia is better. By the eye test, Georgia is better. And yet I can’t shake the feeling that this is a tricky game for the Dawgs.
This is the only game on this list that is already officially going to happen. These 2 teams will face each other in the SEC Championship Game. Georgia, quite likely, will be in a similar situation to last season: Probably already assured of a Playoff spot facing off against a team that could sneak in the back door with a win.
More to play for makes the Tigers dangerous.
It’s the defense that gets the most attention. Harold Perkins, BJ Ojulari, Mekhi Wingo and Sa’vion Jones are all great players. They will give Georgia’s offensive front all it can handle.
Quarterback Jayden Daniels, meanwhile, has had a great season with over 2,000 yards passing and 14 touchdowns to go with 629 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns.
He’s a unique challenge but also won’t be the first versatile quarterback the Dawgs have faced this year. Anthony Richardson wasn’t a challenge for Georgia, and Daniels might not be either.
Still, an impressive run for a hot team, and that is always tricky to deal with at the end of the year.
4. Michigan
It’s the rematch that I’m not sure anyone outside of Ann Arbor is really clamoring for.
Georgia dismantled Michigan in the CFP semifinal last year, and I think most on the outside would expect a similar result this season. With that said, you have to imagine the Wolverines are at least somewhat hungry for revenge.
They might have been higher on this list if not for the fact that they have to face No. 2 Ohio State just to get into the Playoff (unless, of course, they play the Buckeyes so competitively that the committee chooses to keep them in the top 4 … unlikely).
Running back Blake Corum is having a bona fide Heisman-caliber season with over 1,300 yards rushing and 17 touchdowns, and J.J. McCarthy has been consistent and efficient at quarterback.
Still, I’m not sure the Wolverines have the weapons to match up against Georgia on either side of the ball. Not like their rival Ohio State does, at least.
5. TCU
Look, don’t let anyone tell you TCU isn’t for real.
The Horned Frogs have 5 wins over teams that were ranked at the time they played them. Granted, only 2 of them remain ranked in the CFP poll and neither is within striking distance of the top 10.
Still, you have to give this team plenty of credit. Undoubtedly, people will look at TCU like they did at Cincinnati a year ago, and those assumptions were proved largely true when Alabama easily topped the Bearcats in the CFP semifinal.
But quarterback Max Duggan is effective and protects the ball well. The team doesn’t commit many turnovers, and it does such an effective job at balancing its attack between the pass and the run.
If you’re asking me whether I think TCU can beat Georgia in a potential Playoff matchup, my gut says it’s a longshot.
But crazier things have happened.
6. USC
We’ll call this a matchup of the future.
USC poses the least danger to Georgia, for one because it is very unlikely to make it into the Playoff. A 1-point loss (at Utah) might be all it takes to keep the Trojans out of the running, even with potential wins over No. 16 UCLA and No. 18 Notre Dame in their final 2 regular-season games.
USC is a talented bunch, though, starting with quarterback Caleb Williams. Williams is still on the Heisman shortlist for 2022 and will undoubtedly be among the top favorites heading into 2023.
I just don’t think this matchup is going to happen this year and if it does, I think Georgia is far too complete for Lincoln Riley’s squad. But bank on this: USC will be in the mix going forward. The Trojans are recruiting gangbusters right now and Riley is among the very best offensive minds in the country.
We’ll consider this the matchup of the future.
And who knows what the future holds.