Mississippi State is such a tough team to get a read on. When the Air Raid attack is clicking, it’s nearly impossible to stop. Just ask Auburn. Leading 28-3 late in the 2nd quarter last season, the Tigers were run over by a Bulldogs’ onslaught that put up 6 unanswered touchdowns and the 43-34 defeat kept Auburn on a season-ending tailspin.

Maybe that’s why Mississippi State is a 3.5-point favorite at home against the Aggies this Saturday (kickoff at 3 p.m., Central time). Maybe it’s that the Bulldogs have won 3 of their past 4 home games against Texas A&M, which broke a 3-game losing streak to the Bulldogs in 2020 with a 28-14 victory in the most recent meeting at Davis Wade Stadium in in Starkville, Miss.

Maybe Las Vegas is as confused as everyone else about how to gauge Mike Leach’s offense?

Regardless of the spread, this has been a series marked by decisive victories. Only 6 of 15 games, including the Bulldogs’ 26-22 victory last season at Kyle Field, have ended in 1-score margins. So based on recent results, Saturday’s winning team is likely to do so comfortably.

Determining which team that will be could well rest on the shoulders of the players in the Texas A&M secondary. The Aggies are a veteran group that ranks 10th in the nation in average passing yards allowed, surrendering only 153.3 a game. The unit also leads the Southeastern Conference in allowing just 5.2 yards per passing attempt.

It certainly will be tested by Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers, who leads the SEC with 1,386 passing yards and 16 touchdowns already this season, and just 3 interceptions in 189 attempts. He topped the conference last year as well with 505 completions and completion percentage among starters (73.9 percent).

It’s a seasoned Aggies secondary that returns 5 players with a combined 118 career starts. Senior Demani Richardson leads that group with a team-high 35 starts. He also leads the SEC with a pair of forced fumbles, and is 2nd in the league with 2.5 tackles for loss to go along with 19 tackles on the season and 2 pass breakups.

Jaylon Jones (24 career starts), another seasoned pass defender, knows how important his role will be on Saturday.

“It’s going to come down to the secondary,” Jones said. “We know we’re going to get the rush up front, and as a back end we have to execute. We know they like to throw the ball. They’re the Air Raid offense. So, it’s going to come down to us doing our jobs.”

Fellow DB Tyreek Chappell (12 career starts), who leads the Aggies and ranks 4th in the SEC with 4 pass breakups on the season, is confident his group learned from last year’s loss. It was an embarrassing defeat, one in which the Aggies allowed Rogers to compile a season-high 408 passing yards.

“It’s pretty much all just communication, and we all have to have a great tempo lining up,” Chappell said. “They beat us last year like that, so this year we’ve got to make sure we just have a better tempo and better eyes as well.”

Junior DB Antonio Johnson (17 career starts) will also play a key role. Fresh off a 13-tackle performance against Arkansas that earned him SEC Defensive Player of the Week recognition, Johnson ranks 2nd in the SEC with 38 tackles.

The Aggies’ secondary was further strengthened by the return of graduate Myles Jones (30 career starts), who saw his first action on Saturday since the 2021 Arkansas game. He needs 1 more pass breakup to become the 7th Aggie in program history to register 30 or more in his career.

It’s a secondary that has seen first-hand what Rogers and the Air Raid offense can do. It’s their goal to be better prepared this time around.

Still, the Aggies must put points on the scoreboard themselves, a task that has proven to be difficult so far this season. But tight end Max Wright said he is seeing steady improvement in coordinator Darrell Dickey’s offense as it gets more comfortable with experience.

“Our defense is incredible, but it definitely helps out when the offense puts more points up on the board,” Wright said. “That’s something that we’ve got to do over these next few weeks. And we know that. And I think that with guys stepping into roles and getting a little bit more comfortable in the roles that they’re going to be filling, we’re going to start taking those steps in the right direction.

“When we go back and we watch the film, the plays are there. We’ve really just got to execute and limit the mistakes that we make on our end. We’ve got to be a team that capitalizes on other teams’ mistakes and not give teams a way out by messing up on our own.”

A solid performance on offense would certainly reduce the number of opportunities for Rogers and a Mississippi State offense that ran 76 plays last year against the Aggies.