5 reasons LSU will win its most unlikely SEC title

LSU has been to the SEC Championship Game 6 previous times.

It won 5 of those games.

Four of the games have come against Georgia. The Tigers have won 3 of those, but their only loss in the title game came against the Bulldogs (34-14 in 2005).

No. 14 LSU and No. 1 Georgia meet in the SEC Championship Game 1 more time Saturday in Atlanta.

The undefeated and defending national champion Bulldogs were expected to be here all along. The Tigers weren’t.

The Bulldogs are favored by 17.5 points, so a Tigers victory would be a major upset.

Here are 5 reasons LSU will win its most unlikely SEC title:

1. It’s really good at fixing stuff

The trademark of head coach Brian Kelly and his staff this season has been their ability to fix stuff.

Certainly, they have not been flawless. Otherwise the Tigers would not have lost 3 games.

But after losing the season opener against Florida State, LSU won 4 games in a row.

After losing to Tennessee, LSU won 5 games in a row.

The Tigers have seen their opponent score 1st in all but 1 SEC game, yet they have won all but 2 of those 8 games. That’s because Kelly and his staff have adjusted and regularly turned bad starts into good finishes.

LSU played poorly in a 38-23 loss to Texas A&M last week. It has a lot of stuff to fix coming out of that game.

Kelly and his staff will fix it.

2. Red-zone touchdowns

Georgia is ranked No. 1 in the country in red-zone efficiency because it has scored on 97 percent of its red-zone opportunities (64-of-66). LSU is ranked 27th at 89.1 percent (49-of-55).

But that doesn’t tell the whole story.

The Bulldogs have scored 43 touchdowns on red-zone opportunities (65.2 percent). The Tigers have scored 40 touchdowns on its red-zone opportunities (72.7 percent).

LSU will find the end zone from the red zone more often than Georgia will, and that will make a difference.

3. Jayden Daniels, Offensive MVP

Stetson Bennett IV was the MVP of Georgia’s CFP championship victory against Alabama in January. He has followed that up with a really good season. His critics should have been silenced long ago.

But Daniels will be the better quarterback in this game. Not by a lot, but by enough to win the game and earn Offensive MVP honors.

Though he suffered an ankle injury last week, Daniels will be able to run well enough, move around well enough and pass well enough to be the driving force behind this upset.

Daniels has had some ups and downs this season. But mostly he has made big plays with his legs and his arm when it was necessary for him to elevate his team.

He drove the Tigers 99 yards for what would have been a tying touchdown (if not for a blocked PAT) on the final possession of the opener against Florida State.

He had 3 touchdown passes and 3 touchdown runs in the win against Florida, 2 touchdown passes and 3 touchdown runs against Ole Miss and 2 touchdown passes (and 1 really big 2-point conversion pass) and 1 touchdown run against Alabama.

He won’t produce quite that many touchdowns, but he’ll do enough to be a difference-maker.

4. Harold Perkins Jr., Defensive MVP

The freshman linebacker emerged as a defensive leader at midseason.

He made national headlines when he fought off the flu to record 4 sacks in the win against Arkansas.

He didn’t play well against Texas A&M, just like his defensive teammates.

The defense will be more disciplined this week. It will play better. It will sack Bennett. It will cause turnovers.

Perkins will lead the way.

5. Motivation

Both teams will be passionate for this game. Both want to win the SEC title. But sometimes, 1 team can find the slightest emotional edge that can make the difference.

Georgia entered last year’s SEC Championship Game virtually guaranteed of a CFP berth. Alabama knew it had to win to get into the CFP.

Both teams were passionate. Both wanted to win the SEC title.

But the Crimson Tide had an edge that the Bulldogs couldn’t match in a 41-24 upset.

Georgia enters this championship game virtually guaranteed of a CFP berth.

LSU, unlike 2021 Alabama, can’t get into the CFP. But the Tigers were embarrassed last week.

They saw the Aggies rise up and put together a signature performance to end a disappointing season on the highest note still possible.

LSU will be motivated to do the same — to avoid what would be a 2nd consecutive loss for the 1st time this season, to avoid slipping further down the bowl pecking order after squandering a very realistic shot at a CFP berth.

The Tigers will have that motivational edge. It won’t be big, but it will be big enough.

They’ll add their most unlikely SEC championship to what already has been a very unlikely season.