With the countdown to the 2022 season only a few short weeks away, here’s a look at a handful of scenarios that could make or break the year for head coach Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M. Granted, injuries are inevitable, so we’ll look past that and delve into some of the other areas where the Aggies’ season could be defined.

5 dream scenarios

1. QB emerges and excels

This would be the ultimate dream scenario. Whether it’s Max Johnson, Haynes King or Conner Weigman; for 1 of them to emerge and take off, carrying the team on his back along the way, would be the biggest success story of the season for Texas A&M.

2. Undefeated Aggies shut Saban’s yapper

For Texas A&M to go into the Oct. 8 game at Tuscaloosa undefeated, and then beat Alabama on its own field — in a game the Tide surely has circled for more reasons than one — would be of major significance. It would not only lift the Aggies into rarified air in the eyes of AP pollsters, but it would put Alabama head coach Nick Saban — who accused the Aggies of buying their entire 2022 recruiting class — in his place with a 2nd consecutive loss to them. The Tide have not lost to an opponent in consecutive seasons since losses to Ole Miss in 2014-15.

3. A return to 2020

Granted, it was a crazy COVID season. But how soon we forget that just 2 years ago, Texas A&M romped through the season, finishing 9-1 with a No. 4 ranking. Sure, the jokes keep coming about the Aggies’ propensity to finish season after season 8-4. The snide remarks don’t come without some truth. In 5 of the past 9 seasons, including last year, Texas A&M has indeed finished with 8-4. In 9 of the past 10 seasons, the Aggies have finished either 8-4 or 7-5 heading into their bowl game. But a return to the 2020 campaign would help break those chains and send the Aggies trending in the right direction.

4. A Sugar Bowl victory over Texas

It could happen. Preseason polls have Alabama and Georgia ranked in the top 4. Assuming both teams follow a similar path to last season and wind up in the College Football Playoff, it’s Texas A&M that sits next in line among SEC teams in the preseason rankings. If that holds true, the Aggies would be slotted for the Sugar Bowl, where the SEC ties in with the Big 12 champion. Texas would have to pull some upsets over the likes of Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, but it’s not impossible. If the Longhorns do so and win the Big 12, Bevo would be headed to the Big Easy to face the Aggies … finally.

5. 2022 class represents

With the nation’s top recruiting class in place, it should be interesting to see what impact that collection of talent has on this season. Evan Stewart is already projected to start at receiver and is a projected difference maker on kick returns. On the Aggies’ depth chart, many more are on the rise at nearly every position and could play significant roles straight out of high school. Getting that all-important playing time, and contributing as true freshmen, would not only bode well for this season but shine a bright light on the future.

5 disaster scenarios

1. Weigman transfers, or hits the diamond

It would be devastating to the program if Conner Weigman gets antsy about playing — assuming he doesn’t win the starting job this season. This has very little chance of happening, but we’re talking hypothetically here, and the transfer portal is far too convenient an avenue for any player setting his sights on greener pastures. Equally disastrous would be for the 5-star recruit, widely considered to be the future of Aggies football, to suddenly decide his best days ahead are on the diamond rather than the gridiron. Dropping football altogether for a budding career in baseball — a sport in which he also excels — would be a worst-case scenario for the Aggies’ football program.

2. Probation

How gut-wrenching would it be if Texas A&M rolls through a 12-0 season, only to find that probation awaits at the end of it for what many, including Saban, suspected — that the Aggies did indeed break the NIL rules. To have the program’s first undefeated, untied season since 1939 expunged from the record books would define disaster in Aggieland.

3. Durkin doesn’t fit in

What if new defensive coordinator DJ Durkin doesn’t mesh with the talent at Texas A&M? Sure, there’s plenty of it, but what if the new guy proves to be a bad fit? It doesn’t seem likely, considering Durkin, in Fisher’s words, is a “4-down guy.” But Durkin switched Ole Miss to a 3-man front last season with moderate success. The Rebels were 8th in the conference in scoring defense, while the Aggies were 2nd. Only Georgia gave up fewer points last season than Texas A&M. Durkin has some pretty big shoes to fill, with former DC Mike Elko moving up to head coach at Duke. It would be disastrous if Durkin winds up not being able to adapt to the personnel he has to work with.

4. Another 8-4 season

Yes, another 7- or 8-win regular season would be a disaster at this point. As already mentioned, the Aggies have won 7 or 8 regular-season games in 9 of the past 10 years. Another one of those campaigns would practically cement the program in its identity, if it hasn’t already. A 9-win season has to be the floor in 2022. Anything less would cast a very dark shadow over the future of the program and the Fisher era.

5. Early season stumble

Texas A&M has won 24 of its past 30 nonconference games. This season begins with 3 out-of-conference opponents, all coming down to College Station to face the Aggies at Kyle Field. Appalachian State is one, with a reputation of pulling major upsets on the road (see Michigan), and Miami is another. The Hurricanes are much improved, with a fiery new head coach. Ranked No. 17 in the coaches’ preseason poll, the ‘Canes would love nothing more than to hand Mario Cristobal his first signature victory. Even 1 loss in those first 3 games would be disastrous for Texas A&M. But 2 would be unthinkable.