Breaking down the weekend’s SEC slate, all in one place.

Game of the Week: Tennessee at Georgia (–8.5)

The stakes

Vols-Dogs is just the 14th regular-season game in the past 50 years pitting teams ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the AP Poll, and by far the most unlikely. Games of this magnitude usually loom in the distance for a while, getting bigger as they get closer. This one appeared suddenly at full scale, more or less out of nowhere. Tennessee’s rise from preseason afterthought to the sport’s apex unfolded so quickly and unexpectedly, it’s almost surreal.

Two months ago, the Volunteers were unranked and largely unregarded. Saturday, they’ll kick off on equal footing with the defending national champs, with all that implies. The winner clinches the SEC East, which Tennessee last won in 2007, and with it an inside lane to the Playoff. (Depending on how the CFP race shakes out elsewhere, possibly a little margin for error in the SEC Championship Game, as well.) Hendon Hooker, face of the nation’s highest-scoring offense, can cement his status as the Heisman favorite in the home stretch. The Vols can claim wins over Alabama, Florida and Georgia in the same season for the 1st time since 2004. They can take over as the consensus No. 1 team for the 1st time since their distant national championship season in 1998. They can go on basking in the fact that they’re relevant, for the 1st time in way too long.

As for Georgia, well, it’s not every Saturday the season is on the line against an undefeated division rival. The Bulldogs may not be as emotionally invested in the 1 vs. 2 spectacle, having played on plenty of big stages and finally overcome their long-simmering championship angst last year. They fully expected to be here. But as long as they are, they’re still very invested in claiming another title while the window is wide open. UGA hasn’t faced another ranked team since its Week 1 blowout over Oregon, and it has barely been tested in the meantime. The real tests on its way back to the top begin now.

The stat: 17.5%

That’s the percentage of Georgia QB Stetson Bennett IV‘s dropbacks this season on which he has faced some kind of pressure, per Pro Football Focus, the lowest rate of any full-time Power 5 passer. By that standard, Bennett has been arguably the best-protected quarterback in America.

Give credit to his offensive line, which has looked like a unit manned by a bunch of future pros is supposed to look. (Although Bennett has been sacked 8 times, PFF hasn’t attributed any of them to an individual O-lineman, and OTs Broderick Jones and Warren McClendon are both among the SEC’s highest-graded pass blockers.) But much of the credit for keeping Bennett clean also goes to Bennett himself, who processes in the pocket like the 6th-year, 25-year-old vet he is, and even more so to an offense designed to get the ball to his playmakers as quickly and safely as possible. Georgia, of all places, has embraced the concept of a passing game that functions as an extension of the run: A majority of Bennett’s attempts this season (53 percent) have left his hands in under 2.5 seconds, with a full quarter of them (25.5 percent) aimed behind the line of scrimmage, one of the highest rates in the country. His top 3 receivers — Ladd McConkey, Brock Bowers and RB Kenny McIntosh — are all frequent screen targets who average more yards after the catch than before.

That dynamic goes a long way toward neutralizing the pass rush, which in Tennessee’s case has been a strength: Every opposing quarterback has been sacked, hit or hurried at least a dozen times, most frequently by edge Byron Young, whose 33 QB pressures ranks 2nd in the SEC only to Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr. The Vols knocked Pitt’s Kedon Slovis out of the game in Week 2, and in conference play they’ve generated sustained heat against Florida’s Anthony Richardson (22 pressures), LSU’s Jayden Daniels (16), Alabama’s Bryce Young (22) and Kentucky’s Will Levis (4 sacks). In each of those games, however, a consistent factor was the pressure generated by Tennessee’s offense, which set a furious pace that kept those QBs in must-pass mode. Outside of a 2nd-half comeback at Missouri in Week 5, Bennett has had the luxury of playing with the lead and the entire playbook at his disposal at all times. Forcing him out of the quick game and into situations where he has to throw downfield is a mission for both sides of the ball.

The big question: Can Georgia cover Jalin Hyatt?

You can just as easily frame this the other way: Can Hyatt get open against Georgia? However you spin it, the nation’s premier deep threat opposite the nation’s most respected defense is worth the price of admission all by itself.

For his part, Hyatt’s star has risen so quickly it’s hard to know where to start. A relative unknown a month ago, he packed an entire campaign’s worth of production into October alone: In 4 games, he accounted for more yards (582) than Tennessee’s leading receiver in 4 of the past 10 seasons, and as many touchdowns (11) as the entire 2017 team combined. He averaged just shy of 20 yards per target. His breakout game, a 207-yard, 5-TD bonanza against Alabama, was immediately enshrined among the great performances in school history. Virtually overnight, he’s as known, and feared, as any wideout in the college game.

Unlike Bama, though, Georgia will not be ambushed. Against the Crimson Tide, Tennessee repeatedly exploited mismatches by recognizing that the Tide were effectively leaving Hyatt — who lines up almost exclusively in the slot — on an island against safeties, who were plainly unprepared for his speed in the open field. (And the Vols’ extra-wide WR splits ensure there is a lot of open field.) Five of his 6 receptions and all 3 of his long touchdowns in that game came at the expense of a safety — either DeMarcco Hellams (No. 2 in the clip below) or Malachi Moore (No. 13), neither of whom had a prayer of running deep with Hyatt even with big cushions at the snap:

Among his other big-play TDs, Hyatt torched LSU in similar fashion in Week 5, easily streaking past the Tigers’ Jarrick Bernard-Converse for a 45-yard strike despite Bernard-Converse (a 1st-team All-Big 12 pick at Oklahoma State in 2021) spotting him a 9-yard buffer. Kentucky, an overwhelmingly zone-coverage defense, simply lost track of him — not just once, but twice, allowing Hyatt to run free for 2 wide-open scores on wheel routes.

Georgia, which also spends most of its time in zone, is not immune to raw speed; recall Jameson Williams in last year’s SEC Championship Game. But the Dogs obviously are not prone to busts, either — they rank 3rd nationally in pass efficiency defense after finishing 2nd in 2021 — and with plenty of tape of Hyatt eating up cushions at this point, it’s hard to imagine them leaving either of their starting safeties, Christopher Smith or true freshman Malaki Starks, in a position to be next.

That could mean a steady diet of double teams with a safety playing over the top of the “cover” nickel, Javon Bullard; it could mean an emphasis on getting physical with Hyatt off the line, a specialty of the “big” nickel, Tykee Smith; it could even mean sliding in 1 of the outside corners, Kelee Ringo or Kamari Lassiter, to match up with Hyatt in the slot. (Of course, that would create a whole new set of problems matching up with the Vols’ imposing outside WRs, Bru McCoy and Cedric Tillman, both of whom are healthy and capable of taking over a game in their own right; Tennessee’s averaging almost 50 points for a reason, folks.) Whatever the plan, the lesson from the past month is that it simply can’t be business as usual and hope for the best.

The key matchup: Tennessee’s Interior OL vs. Georgia DL Jalen Carter

Carter hasn’t been right at any point this season, missing 3 games with a sprained knee and playing limited snaps in the other 5. Even at less than 100 percent, though, flashes of the talent that is going to make him a top draft pick next spring still leap off the screen. He has generated 11 QB pressures this season on just 58 pass-rushing snaps, per PFF, including 4 hurries on just a dozen opportunities last week in his 1st game back against Florida.

Carter’s presence on the interior is even more vital with Georgia’s most experienced and productive edge rusher, Nolan Smith, on the shelf for the rest of the season due to a torn pectoral muscle. Without Smith, the Bulldogs’ best chance of disrupting Hooker is collapsing the pocket from the inside out. Tennessee’s interior OL starters — LG Jerome Carvin, center Cooper Mays and RG Javontez Spraggins — have allowed a combined 20 pressures and 4 sacks on the year; Alabama, in particular, was most effective when it managed to get a hand in Hooker’s face rather than off the edge. The only foolproof way to keep the Vols’ big-play tendencies in check? A montage of Carter depositing would-be blockers in the quarterback’s lap.

The verdict

Tennessee is at its most dangerous when sprinting out to an early lead, which it has managed to do in its past 3 conference games: In all 3, the Vols scored on their 1st offensive possession and led by at least 2 touchdowns in the game’s first 20 minutes. LSU and Kentucky responded by largely abandoning the run; neither had the firepower to throw its way out of the hole, and they were overrun by a combined score of 84-19. Alabama had the juice to sustain a comeback, thanks pretty much entirely to Bryce Young, but not to stop Tennessee’s offense from answering every salvo and ultimately getting the last shot. Georgia does not have Bryce Young. If Hooker and Co. succeed in setting the pace early, the Bulldogs could very quickly find themselves scrambling to keep up in the type of game they’re built to avoid.

On the other hand, the fact that Georgia’s offense lands fewer haymakers doesn’t mean it can’t put up a big number on the scoreboard. Against FBS opponents, UGA has averaged almost exactly the same points per possession as Tennessee (3.92 to 3.95) while averaging almost exactly the same yards per play (7.36 to 7.24). The Bulldogs get it done in more methodical chunks — they generate far more 10-yard plays than the Vols, while the Vols generate more 30- and 40-yard plays — but they get it done. Meanwhile, Tennessee’s defense is much improved from 2021, but it doesn’t pose any specific problems that SEC offenses don’t encounter most weeks. If Bennett has to play like a Heisman candidate to keep it close, sound the alarm. As long as he just gets to run the offense, the Dogs’ title defense remains on schedule.
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Georgia 38 | • Tennessee 32

Alabama (–13.5) at LSU

Among the many questions with the SEC West lead on the line: Can LSU protect Jayden Daniels? The Tigers’ true-freshman offensive tackles, Will Campbell on the left side and Emery Jones on the right, have held their own for freshmen, but when not being graded on a curve they’ve gone through some predictable growing pains: PFF has Campbell and Jones down for 27 pressures and 5 sacks allowed, 4 of them at Jones’ expense. Altogether, Daniels has been sacked more times (27) than any other SEC starter this season. Opposite Alabama’s blue-chip edge-rushing rotation of Will Anderson Jr., Dallas Turner, and Chris Braswell, passing downs project as a severe mismatch.

When Daniels does manage to get the ball out of his hands, the matchup between his talented fleet of wideouts (specifically Kayshon Boutte) and Alabama’s secondary is more interesting. At 1 corner, Kool-Aid McKinstry is arguably the SEC’s best cover man, holding opposing receivers to a 46 percent completion rate on 50 targets with a league-high 11 passes broken up. At the other, LSU transfer Eli Ricks may be well on his way to surpassing Kool-Aid for the distinction after just 1 game in the lineup. Ricks was dominant in his 1st start, allowing a single completion on 10 targets against Mississippi State, raising the question of why it took so long to get 1 of the most touted transfers on the offseason market on the field in the 1st place. (Especially for a defense only a week removed from giving up 52 points in Knoxville.) There has never a shortage of NFL-ready talent between Bama and LSU, but watching former 5-star classmates Boutte and Ricks go 1-on-1 is a scout’s dream.
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Alabama 34 | • LSU 24

Florida at Texas A&M (–3.5)

With little else at stake here, all eyes in College Station will be on A&M’s Conner Weigman, who might be on the verge of giving Florida’s Anthony Richardson a run for his money as the league’s most intriguing young quarterback. Weigman’s 1st career start, a 338-yard, 4-touchdown effort against Ole Miss, was a success despite coming in a losing effort, clearly establishing the freshman as the Aggies’ franchise QB going forward. Combine that with the fact that his top targets, fellow freshman Evan Stewart and redshirt sophomore Moose Muhammad III, are also underclassmen and you have the ingredients for a hype-restoring finish regardless of the final record. Yeah, I know, just brace yourself.

If you had to choose an SEC defense (other than Vanderbilt’s) to build your fledgling starter’s confidence right now, Florida’s might come in at the top of the list. The Gators rank 12th in the conference in both yards and points allowed, as well as in pass efficiency D, and dead last on 3rd downs. They also just dismissed their best player on that side of the ball, edge rusher Brenton Cox Jr., for undisclosed reasons. (Billy Napier described Cox’s departure as a “cumulative effect,” not a response to any specific incident; sounds like a 5th-year senior who’s basically over it.) At 4-4, the situation in Gainesville is not a disaster, but it is very boring. The best-case scenario at this point is just enough progress from Richardson to build on heading into 2023, but not enough to convince him to leave early for the NFL Draft.
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• Texas A&M 31 | Florida 26

Auburn at Mississippi State (–12.5)

Prediction-wise, the game immediately following a head coach getting shown the door is a volatile situation. How will Auburn react? By cannonballing directly into the tank? Or by rallying like a team that has just had a burden lifted — aka the “dead coach bounce”? Locker-room vibes in these circumstances can go either way.

For Mississippi State, there is some urgency coming off an open date to prevent a 2-game skid from becoming 3 with Georgia on deck and Ole Miss awaiting on Thanksgiving. The Bulldogs’ past 2 outings against Kentucky and Alabama were deflating losses that took the air out of a promising start. (And specifically out of QB Will Rogers, who struggled through 2 of his least productive outings of the past 2 seasons.) The week off arrived at the right time to regroup. Beating a lame-duck version of Auburn at home won’t lift the Bulldogs back into the polls, but it would clinch bowl eligibility and prevent a slump from descending into a full-on collapse. Another loss, and the trajectory starts to look pretty grim.
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• Mississippi State 36 | Auburn 20

Liberty at Arkansas (–13.5)

Liberty, not Arkansas, is the ranked team in this matchup, landing at No. 23 in the latest AP Poll. Beyond their 7-1 record, though, the Flames’ resume is gelatinous. Five of their 8 games have been decided by single digits, including their only loss, a 37-36 defeat at Wake Forest decided on a failed 2-point conversion; a quadruple-overtime escape at Southern Miss; and a 21-20 nail-biter against FCS Gardner-Webb. Their more decisive wins have come at the expense of 2 of the worst teams in the FBS, Old Dominion and UMass, and a formerly competent BYU outfit in freefall. Meanwhile, the quarterback situation has been chaotic.

But the Flames are winning, which is enough for now to get a number next to their name on the scrolling ticker and put head coach Hugh Freeze on the short list for the vacancy at Auburn. (Although the SEC office may have something to say about that given the circumstances of Freeze’s sordid exit from Ole Miss in 2017.) Whether it’s enough to hang with the Razorbacks is TBD. The status of QBs Johnathan Bennett (flu) and Charlie Brewer (broken hand) might make or break their chances.
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• Arkansas 41 | Liberty 23

Kentucky (–1.5) at Missouri

The flimsy point spread reflects 2 teams moving in opposite directions: Missouri, winner of 2 straight, is coming off its best game of the season in a 23-10 upset at South Carolina; Kentucky, loser of 3 of its past 4, arrives fresh off a 44-6 flop at Tennessee. As always, the Wildcats will be down for a slugfest, which Mizzou should be happy to oblige — both offenses are averaging fewer than 20 points per game vs. Power 5 opponents. Not coincidentally, they’re also the SEC’s 2 least productive offenses in the red zone. The difference Saturday could come down to which side manages to cash in on the few opportunities it gets.
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• Kentucky 24 | Missouri 19

South Carolina (–6.5) at Vanderbilt

This time last week, the Gamecocks were freshly ranked and looking forward to extending a 4-game win streak. Missouri dealt them a reality check. Now, they’re just trying to get bowl eligible and get out of Nashville without being on the wrong side of Vandy’s 1st SEC win in 3 years.
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• South Carolina 31 | Vanderbilt 21

SCOREBOARD

Week 9 Record: 4–1 straight-up | 3–2 vs. spread
Season Record: 56–11 straight-up | 32–32 vs. spread