There's a stat that totally debunks a previous Georgia narrative about winning shootouts
It was one of those stats that I had to check 3 different times to make sure it was right.
Before Georgia’s showdown against Tennessee and the nation’s top offense, I had a question that I’m sure plenty in the outside world had. That is, can Georgia actually win a shootout? Better yet, when was the last time they did that?
In order to find a Georgia game in which both teams scored at least 30 points, you had to go all the way back to the 2017 season. Specifically, the Rose Bowl. I expected Tennessee-Georgia to be the first instance in 5 years that UGA played in a game where both teams scored 30 points (swing and a miss on that).
In digging that stat up prior to the Tennessee game, I realized that in games that Georgia allowed 30 points under Kirby Smart, it was 1-9. In games when it allowed less than 30 points, it was 73-6.
Of course, Georgia didn’t come close to allowing 30 points against Tennessee. The Dawgs didn’t even allow their first touchdown in that game until there was 4:15 left in the 4th quarter. So I simply filed that “UGA when it allows 30 points under Smart” stat away because I figured at some point down the road, it would be put to the test.
That prediction, however, I didn’t whiff on.
In the SEC Championship against LSU, Georgia allowed exactly 30 points and won convincingly. In the Peach Bowl, the Dawgs surrendered 41 points and overcame a 2-score deficit in the 4th quarter to survive Ohio State.
Two shootouts, 2 UGA victories.
Smell ya later, 1-9. That 2-0 mark in shootouts in 2022 is the only thing that matters heading into Monday night’s College Football Playoff National Championship against TCU. No longer should we be asking whether Georgia can actually win a back and forth game. If this turns into a track meet on Monday night — TCU is 5-1 when it allows 30 points in 2022 — the Dawgs can win that style of game.
History suggests we could be in for that. The losing team in the College Football Playoff National Championship averaged 25 points. There’s also the fact that Georgia’s defense looked vulnerable in the past 2 games and now, it gets a challenging matchup against Heisman Trophy runner-up Max Duggan and TCU’s No. 4-ranked scoring offense.
While this 2022 squad might not be revered in the same way as the 2021 Georgia team that ended the program’s 4-decade long national title drought, it’s fair to say that this year’s group showed it could win in more ways. Are we sure that the 2021 squad would’ve been able to climb back after CJ Stroud delivered a performance for the ages? And if your response to that is “they wouldn’t have ever been in that spot,” might I remind you what Bryce Young did to Georgia’s historic defense in the 2021 SEC Championship.
There’s no way to answer that question definitively. What we can answer is why this Georgia offense has taken that next step.
Obviously, Stetson Bennett IV’s growth and ability to deliver lights out performances is a big part of that. He had a quarterback rating of 180.0 or better in 5 of Georgia’s 6 games against teams who are currently ranked in the AP Top 25. The comfort level of the 25-year-old signal-caller appears to be at an all-time high, which feels like the byproduct of being in Year 3 in Todd Monken’s offense.
Compare how much better off Georgia is in 2022 compared to 2019, which was the final year before Monken arrived:
For what it’s worth, if you take away the 39 non-offensive points from the 2021 totals, the scoring per game drops to 36.0 and the scoring per game vs. AP Top 25 finishers drops to 24.5 points per game. The 2022 group’s only non-offensive points of the year was the 7 points that came via Christopher Smith’s blocked field goal return against LSU in the SEC Championship. That means UGA’s 2022 offense averaged 38.9 points per game and against AP Top 25 finishers, Georgia averaged 42.3 points per game.
Yeah, UGA’s offense is roughly 18 points per game better against ranked finishers than it was last season. There’s your big difference.
Monken deserves a ton of praise for the offensive progression in 2022. Looks are more varied with tempo, Georgia can utilize 2-tight end sets more and doesn’t show its hand based on the tight ends and running backs who line up. Hence, why Georgia is on track for its highest scoring offense since 2014, which, based on scoring average, was the most prolific attack in program history at 41.3 points per game. (With 551 points, this offense has a chance to break last season’s program record of 579 in a season.)
But again, let’s take a closer look. If you take away the 56 (!) non-offensive points from that season, Georgia’s 2014 offense really averaged just 37 points per game, which was less than the 38.9 points/game adjusted total for the 2022 UGA offense. Even if we wanted to include the non-offensive points, 2014 Georgia averaged 34.8 points per game against AP Top 25 finishers, which is nearly 9 points less than this year’s group. And for the “yards/play” enthusiasts, it’s also worth noting that 2014 Georgia’s 6.79 yards per play wasn’t as good as the 2022 offense’s 7.09 yards per play.
That’s a long-winded way of saying that this is shaping up to be the best offense in Georgia history.
Never mind the fact that the Dawgs are likely going to end a 15-game season without a 1,000-yard rusher or a 1,000-yard receiver. What Georgia does have is 3 players with at least 500 receiving yards and 3 players with 500 rushing yards. It has 3 running backs who average between 5-10 carries a game and it has 3 pass-catchers who average between 3-4 catches per game.
There’s versatility for Georgia to attack TCU’s 3-3-5 depending on what’s working or not working. If TCU’s Jim Thorpe Award-winning corner Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson shuts down a healthy AD Mitchell or Arian Smith, Monken can utilize the tight ends (we’re still not sure what Darnell Washington’s availability will be). If that mediocre TCU run defense is surrendering chunk plays, Georgia can turn to a combination of Daijun Edwards and Kenny McIntosh, who sort of epitomized the versatility of UGA’s 2022 offense.
McIntosh is Georgia’s leader with 1,285 scrimmage yards (779 rushing, 506 receiving) and 12 touchdowns. He easily has PFF’s best receiving grade for an FBS running back (87.8 and the next closest is 83.7), and he’s 2nd in receiving among Power 5 backs. We saw McIntosh’s versatility in the Peach Bowl when he took a screen play to the house for a 25-yard score, and he would’ve had a 62-yard touchdown run, but he tripped himself at the Ohio State 10-yard line.
NFL scouts definitely going to feel Kenny McIntosh’s speed when they see him at field level in Mobile. ?pic.twitter.com/sJzHMrsXJx
— Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) January 2, 2023
You win shootouts when you have versatility. Georgia has that in 2022.
That’s a big reason UGA has more wins in games surrendering 30 points in the past 2 contests that it had in the previous 93 under Smart.
Call it offensive evolution, call it schematic progression, call it whatever.
I’d call it a monumental factor in determining whether Georgia becomes the first team in a decade to repeat.
that 43.5 pts per game against ap finishers is eye-popping. aligns to the narrative that this team truly got up for the big games…at least offensively.
gwhite should sit-out on the comments sections of this article
Right, because if he tries to say anything it’ll end up making him look even more stupid.
I don’t get into those tit/tats like Gwhite relishes, but after reading his comments for a couple of seasons I’d have to call you on your assessment that he CAN’T be more stupid! I’m sure he’ll give it a try!!
And I don’t know anyone else that’s more stupid on this site except for one person: Dawgs2021.
Rent Free since 1998
Still stand by what I said. You’re still an idiot.
I would reply to you again under this comment but for some reason when you reply for the 4th time it doesn’t give me a reply button.
I meant after the 4th**
Yeah. The internet is hard for some people I guess
Can’t wait until GA gets blown out by Tennessee next season
Sure you can. You have waited 6 years already so you are quite adept at waiting I’m sure.
21 is an insufferable azz
Who called who out here? Maybe square away your boy Volfan before you start telling me what time it is. But I’ll give you what you want:
27-13
6 in a row
1998
Carry on now
still wait for that beat down in knoxville. Y’all been saying that for years. yawn. Enjoy the natty ??
Ironic coming from a FL fan
Why? The Gators have won stuff this century and like most of the East have owned your Vols
Most of the east? Only FL and GA have had our number recently.
“Never mind the fact that the Dawgs are likely going to end a 15-game season without a 1,000-yard rusher or a 1,000-yard receiver.”
When did SDS writers become convinced that it’s an advantage to have ONE GUY carry the load? This makes no sense to me.
Blake Corum had 1000+ rushing yards for Michigan. That doesn’t help much when he’s on the sideline on crutches against TCU.
Yards per rush and rushing yards per game are important stats. Having a “1,000 rusher” is something to avoid, not something to aspire to.
Reading articles, comment sections, and forums recently there are three common themes regarding UGA: 1) UGA does not have an elite WR/they spread the ball around a lot 2) UGA’s offense and Stet don’t get a lot of respect/it is managing the game, winning in-spite of and not because of the offense 3) UGA has won some games only because the opposing team lost their elite WR
I believe those are all related, and a fault with tOSU and Alabama while being a strength of UGA. Those teams are so reliant on a playmaker or two and without them, they struggle. UGA has lost several players to injury but they spread the ball around so much that they can continue on. But because we don’t see the QB1 to WR1 highlights and videogame numbers as we see at Alabama, tOSU, and Tennesee the perception is UGA can’t do it. But I believe it is intentional; UGA wants 6-10 guys who can make a play vs 1 elite playmaker. Lose one of the 6-10 and you are left with 5-9 while losing your 1 elite guy and you stop being able to score (Alabama last year in the national championship, tOSU in the semi-final)
It was a lot of fun to watch Bryce last year, to watch Stroud this year. And if they don’t lose their elite playmakers at WR maybe they do win. But injuries happen in football and a team should be built to overcome those as much as possible.
Just my $0.02 and I could be wrong.
Good points.
The common misconception is that Alabama was flying up and down the field in the natty before Williams was hurt. In reality, at the time of his injury, the score was 3-3 with about 12 minutes left in the 1st half. Alabama had punted on three of their four possessions with Williams.
And regarding the Peach, did everyone fail to notice Nolan Smith in civvies at the coin toss? Or Washington on crutches in the first half? Am I taking crazy pills? Yes, everyone has injuries.
Very well said. It’s not the best approach to build around one or two fast skinny guys that probably won’t hold up for 13 -15 games.
No running backs are avoiding the 1,000 yard a season milestone. Coaches limiting number of attempts would be a better argument. Running backs take a pounding, they can get hurt in the 1st game or last, but no one avoiding getting to that 1000 yard marker, that’s ridiculous…..
It is almost like the moneyball approach to football. You need X number of yards to score X number of points to win X number of games. Georgia doesn’t seem to care where those yards come from so long as they get them. This is IMHO a strength.
GA offense frequently called em off once they had a lead and probably could have scored a good bit more. If that’s the brand of football that you like to see them hey that’s great. GA has a great team. Unfortunately for the GA fans though it leads to a perception that because they aren’t blowing out teams by 30 or 40 points that they aren’t as dominant as they actually are. Seems to me that a lot of GA fans come off a little sensitive when it comes to this. If you’re going to run that type of game then you’re going to have to get used to that perception..
As the kids say “It is what it is”. Georgia doesn’t seem to want to get into shootouts, and will avoid them when possible, letting the defense suffocate the opposition, while making sure the offense stays just ahead.
“Seems to me that a lot of GA fans come off a little sensitive when it comes to this.”
And by ‘this’ I mean ‘everything’.
They’re a sensitive bunch :)
Not as sensitive as you guys are about that preseason Natty, eh Gabe?
It’s not just 43.5/game against AP ranked teams, but only 36.25/game vs non AP ranked teams.
And to think, they didn’t even hit their scoring average against OSU.
Georgia liked to play with it’s food sometimes.
UGa by 39
Smart won’t lose again until he retires. These games are pointless, aside from building game film for the NFL Draft.