O'Gara: Bailing on Bama? Why that would be foolish
Saturday was indeed unprecedented.
Losing to Tennessee during the Nick Saban era was a first, and we had never seen the program commit 17 penalties, nor had we seen it ever allow 52 points in a real tackle football game.
Well, check that. It happened against Sewanee in 1907. Who could forget.
If you’re of the belief that Saturday was a sign that the sky is falling in Tuscaloosa, I’ve got some advice. Take a breath. Walk around your neighborhood. Take The Paul Finebaum Show off speed dial.
You good? OK, then listen up.
Alabama will be fine. And by “fine,” I mean Alabama will still find itself in Atlanta with a shot to make the Playoff, which is about all one can ask for entering conference championship weekend.
Why am I so confident? And aren’t adjustments needed? Yes, but we need to remember that there’s nobody on the planet you’d rather have making those adjustments than Nick Saban.
As historic as this win was for Tennessee, let’s add some more context as to why the Tide are still positioned to bounce back from Saturday’s loss. That’ll likely begin on Saturday against MSU, who has been outscored 152-16 by Alabama in the past 4 matchups.
Here are all the instances of Alabama’s response in regular-season games after a regular-season loss under Saban since 2008 (excluding bowl games that follow regular-season losses):
- 2021: W 49-9, at MSU
- 2019: W 38-7, at MSU
- 2015: W 34-0, vs. Louisiana-Monroe
- 2014: W 14-13, at Arkansas
- 2012: W 49-0, vs. Western Carolina
- 2011: W 24-7, at MSU
- 2010: W 23-10, at Ole Miss
- W 30-10 at No. 17 MSU
Getting back on track after a midseason loss — that excludes any game after the Iron Bowl — is something that Saban does better than anyone. In 4 of those 7 seasons with a midseason loss, Alabama reached the national championship. In 3 of those 7 seasons, Alabama won it all.
The only instances in those 7 seasons in which Alabama suffered another regular season loss were 2010 and 2019. In 2019, however, Alabama lost Tua Tagovailoa to a season-ending hip injury in November and in the Iron Bowl, Mac Jones threw a pair of pick-sixes in his first career start vs. SEC competition.
So what am I saying? As long as Bryce Young stays healthy, I’d bet on Alabama making it to Atlanta with the lone loss.
Speaking of that, here’s something to consider. Given how valuable the Heisman Trophy winner is to Alabama’s 2022 success, am I crazy for thinking Young looking healthy coming off the shoulder injury was actually a more encouraging long-term development than winning a game in which he was clearly limited? Maybe I am crazy. All I know is that if Young is running that Alabama offense, the Tide have as good of a chance to win it all as anyone.
Even in a loss, Saturday was a reminder that he continues to be on a different level.
Also, watch Bryce Young do a Steph Curry on this play. He turns his back and starts to run for the sideline the moment the ball left his hand. Knew he had six. pic.twitter.com/qFYrkIj2fo
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) October 17, 2022
Of course, Alabama needs to give Young more help. The 2 special teams’ miscues — one of which nearly caused Saban to self-combust — and the secondary busts simply cannot happen against quality competition on the road.
Oh, and the penalties. That has to stop. Here are Alabama’s penalties in true road games since the start of 2021:
- 2021 at No. 11 Florida — 11 penalties, 75 yards
- 2021 at Texas A&M — 8 penalties, 82 yards
- 2021 at MSU — 6 penalties, 60 yards
- 2021 at Auburn — 11 penalties, 129 yards
- 2022 at Texas — 15 penalties, 100 yards
- 2022 at No. 20 Arkansas — 10 penalties, 101 yards
- 2022 at No. 6 Tennessee — 17 penalties, 130 yards
That’s an average of 11 penalties for 96.7 yards. Alabama is basically giving away a touchdown in true road games. Add in the fact that the Tide allowed an average of 28 points in those true road games and yeah, it makes sense why it always looks like Young is fighting an uphill battle.
On the bright side, there are only 2 true road games left on Alabama’s schedule. On the not-so-bright side, going to Death Valley to take on LSU won’t be a picnic and neither will that trip to Oxford with Lane Kiffin’s squad out to a 7-0 start.
Neither team has an offense like Tennessee’s. Then again, neither did 2021 A&M and we remember how that played out. We should also remember that after Alabama’s regular season loss last year, the SEC Championship was a Playoff-or-bust game against arguably the best defense we’ve seen in the 21st century. And what happened? Young went for 461 yards and 4 total touchdowns in a blowout win.
You could make the case that making those adjustments were different because the Tide had Jameson Williams and John Metchie, both of whom are better than any current Alabama pass-catcher (I still think Louisville transfer/deep threat extraordinaire Tyler Harrell returning to the lineup in the latter half of the regular season will be significant).
I could also make the case that with all due respect to the indestructible Brian Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs is unlike anything the Tide had in last year’s backfield. Hence, why Alabama leads FBS in yards per carry (6.58) and in runs of 50 yards (6). That’s also why Alabama went from 3 runs of 30 yards in 15 games (No. 114 in FBS) in 2021 to 9 such runs through 7 games (No. 6 in FBS) in 2022.
The offense isn’t the problem. It’s the lack of discipline, the defense and the special teams issues. I’d bank on those first 2 issues being ironed out, and as bad as that unnecessary punt recovery attempt was, Saban’s reaction to that play suggested that lack of focus won’t be tolerated. As for why Will Reichard suddenly can’t make a kick, well, that’s not something Saban can work his magic to fix. Reichard is still the guy who made 11 of 13 kicks in SEC Championship/Playoff games with the lone misses being a blocked 48-yarder and a missed 44-yarder. His track record suggests this is a rough patch that’ll be corrected.
That’s sort of how this feels for Alabama — it’s a rough patch that’ll be corrected.
The path to an SEC Championship still remains, just as it did last year after the A&M loss. Shoot, I’d argue this was even less significant in the division race than that because Tennessee was a crossover matchup. There’s a reason why Alabama’s national championship odds at FanDuel are still only at +450 (Clemson’s odds are 4th at +1200). It’s because nobody is better with their back against the wall than Saban.
After Saturday’s stunner on Rocky Top, Alabama’s back is indeed against the wall. The margin for error is gone. The Tide finally got burned after playing with fire too much. Maybe it was inevitable.
But if you’re pouring water on Alabama’s season after Saturday’s stunner, consider an alternate reality.
That might’ve just fueled the fire for another national championship push.