Brian Kelly's coyness is more about LSU's QBs than for fooling FSU

Brian Kelly has picked his starting quarterback.

He’s not telling anyone outside of his LSU inner circle because he doesn’t want Florida State to know ahead of time whether it will be Jayden Daniels or Garrett Nussmeier that starts the season opener Sunday night in the Caesars Superdome.

“It doesn’t help us to give up any of our cards in that game,” the first-year Tigers coach said Monday, “so we’re going to hold on to that card until gameday.”

Kelly is correct when he says he has nothing to gain by making his choice known before he has to send the offense on the field for the first time.

He said keeping his choice a secret, assuming he can keep it from leaking until about 6:30 p.m. CDT or so Sunday, is “a tactical advantage” for the Tigers.

That seems a bit overstated.

Just moments after citing the tactical advantage, Kelly said there are “great similarities” between the two quarterbacks.

“Both run extremely well,” Kelly said. “Both make plays outside of the pocket. We don’t have to change the play-calling.”

Kelly went on to demonstrate that he won’t have to turn his play sheet over to look at one side for plays Daniels can run and the other side for plays that Nussmeier can run.

“This is a 1A and a 1B,” Kelly said, “not a 1 and a 2. They’re both going to contribute this year.”

Now back to the so-called tactical advantage. If Daniels’ skill set and Nussmeier’s skill set are so similar, if the plays that are available and most likely to be called will be essentially the same regardless of which one is on the field, then where’s the tactical advantage?

If Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell knows everything is so similar, then his game plan is easy enough to figure out.

If he knows it’s Daniels or he knows it’s Nussmeier, or even if it doesn’t leak out before kickoff which one it is, it doesn’t matter to Norvell because of “the great similarities” that mean the Tigers “don’t have to change the play-calling” to accommodate either player.

FSU can simply prepare for LSU’s offense, regardless of whether it’s 1A or 1B.

But that’s where the real tactical advantage lies. There is no LSU offense, not vintage 2022, on film anywhere.

Norvell and his defensive staff will watch film from Daniels at Arizona State and Nussmeier from the 2021 Tigers offense, and from Kelly’s offense at Notre Dame and LSU coordinator Mike Denbrock’s offense at Cincinnati.

Somewhere amid all that film, the Seminoles will try to discern some clues about what they’re likely to see Sunday.

Kelly acknowledged that FSU has an advantage in that it already has played a game, having beaten FCS opponent Duquesne 47-7 last Saturday. But, Kelly was quick to add, “the advantage for us is that we haven’t played.”

The Tigers’ advantage has more to do with the mystery surrounding what a new coach might do overall than it does with any mystery about whether Daniels or Nussmeier starts Sunday.

But one of them must start.

It seems likely that Kelly’s coyness about the selection is less about the Seminoles than it is about the Tigers, specifically the 2 competing quarterbacks.

By all accounts the competition has been essentially as close as Kelly has suggested.

But it also benefits Kelly to drive home to the 2 quarterbacks that this is a 1A and 1B situation, that both will contribute this year.

It’s useful to remind 1A that he has to perform because 1B is breathing down his neck. And it’s useful to encourage 1B that he’s really close to being the starter and will get an opportunity to play at some point, provided he keeps working hard and doesn’t get discouraged.

This is Kelly’s first LSU team. He has a pretty talented bunch of starters. But his depth is somewhat shaky, particularly when it comes to experience.

The Tigers have a small margin for error. They have to build confidence based on the success they have beginning Sunday because they have little confidence to carry over from 5-5 and 6-7 seasons in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

They need to keep mistakes to a minimum.

Daniels, a 3-year starter, is much more experienced than Nussmeier, who has thrown 57 passes at the collegiate level. Therefore, Daniels is presumably less prone to reckless decisions.

And for all of Kelly’s talk about being able to call the same plays for both of them, it seems clear that as a practical matter more running plays would be called for Daniels because he’s more explosive, and Daniels seems to have more upside as an ad-libber because of that explosiveness.

LSU won’t have its best running back, John Emery, for at least the first 2 games and though the rebuilt offensive line looks encouraging, it hasn’t been tested.

The skill sets might be similar, but they’re not identical.

The logical expectation is that Daniels will run on to the field for the Tigers’ first series Sunday.

Unless it’s Nussmeier.