SEC basketball: Predicting how far every team in the conference goes
If you love basketball, it may be — with apologies to Andy Williams — the most wonderful time of the year.
Six new head coaches (or 5 plus 1 in a new place) usher in an era of hope in SEC basketball. If South Carolina and Auburn can make the Final Four, yes, anybody could do it. But we’re called on to split hairs and deal in the realm of prediction here.
Which SEC teams make the NCAA Tournament and how far do they go?
Take a deep breath and dive in. Here it goes:
Alabama: Round of 32
Nate Oats’ team has gained a dose of legitimacy, and we think the Tide have another NCAA Tournament season. We’d feel better about it if Jahvon Quinnerly was well and ready to roll. Alabama’s 3-point hefting will probably win it a few games it shouldn’t win … and lose the Tide a few games they should win. That said, a talented young core and Quinnerly will get Bama into the Big Dance and get the Tide a win there. But a cold shooting day in the 2nd round will end the Tide’s season there.
Arkansas: Sweet 16
Projecting the Hogs is one of the toughest things to do. This is more talent than most non-Kentucky teams can assemble in 1 place, and Eric Musselman is certainly capable of leading this group on a deep run. That said, a little more veteran stability would be a big gain for this team. Arkansas is perfectly capable of winning the SEC Tournament or even claiming the regular-season title. But in a 6-game season, this young team feels likely to have a bad performance in a tough spot — like the Sweet 16.
Auburn: Round of 32
Bruce Pearl lost perhaps the most talented Auburn player ever (sorry, Charles Barkley) and a game-changing defender. But he returns a full roster of talented guards and adds Johni Broome from Morehead State, who will take up some of the inside slack. On a good day, Auburn could be the best team in the SEC. But on a bad one, there’s enough struggle in creating buckets that the Tigers will run into a defensive buzzsaw in the Round of 32.
Florida: Round of 64
We’ve got the Gators in the tournament. Hopefully, that’s enough for Todd Golden’s first year, because UF doesn’t have a ton of talent. We think Castleton and Lofton (which sounds like a fairly decent personal injury firm) can get UF into the Dance, but the supporting cast can’t carry the Gators any further.
Kentucky: Final Four
For the other 13 SEC schools, 7 years between Final Four appearances is a golden age. In Lexington, it’s treated like a lifetime. The good news for John Calipari is that this team successfully mixes something old (veteran stars Tsheibwe and Wheeler), something new (frosh Wallace and Livingston) and even something borrowed (transfers Reeves and Fredrick) into a team that won’t repeat last year’s 1st-round fade. Jacob Toppin probably determines how far this team goes, and early signs are that he’s ready to emerge as a big-time player, which can get the Wildcats to Houston.
LSU: Round of 64
New head coach, almost entirely new roster, constant NCAA dark cloud. As long as LSU isn’t banned from the tournament, though, coach Matt McMahon and a roster full of veterans could surprise. Getting to the tournament is a big step for this team in this situation.
Tennessee: Elite Eight
In the moment, there’s a pretty solid case that Tennessee will start the season as the top team in the SEC. With returnees like Josiah-Jordan James and Santiago Vescovi, UT has as much returning talent as anybody. Add in guys like star frosh Julian Phillips and finally surfacing transfer Tyreke Key, and the Vols should be able to match up with just about anybody in the country. The last hurdle for Tennessee is March and while the Vols could well get over that particular hump, the guess is that a stingy defensive team can outlast the Vols in a regional final.
Texas A&M: Sweet 16
The Aggies slide under the radar in the SEC, but Buzz Williams’ team was a run of awful luck away from probably hitting these levels a year ago. Henry Coleman, Tyrece Radford and Wade Taylor will have the Aggies bearing the same never-say-die approach as their coach. A series of intriguing transfers will only heighten A&M’s “earn every point” defensive approach. Texas A&M might surprise a few people by making it to the Sweet 16, but it’ll only be an appetizer for future A&M squads under Williams.
Georgia, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Vanderbilt: Out of luck
To quote John Candy in National Lampoon’s Vacation, sorry folks, park’s closed.