Why Brian Kelly’s LSU showed it’ll be the biggest SEC West threat yet to Nick Saban’s Alabama

Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

The Alabama dynasty isn’t dead yet.

It’s not fair to say the Tide are done winning national titles as long as Nick Saban is on those sidelines and he’s cranking out No. 1 recruiting classes. Last I checked, both things are still happening, despite the fact that the Tide had 2 losses before the Iron Bowl this season for the first time since 2010.

In 2010, there wasn’t a “threat” to Alabama’s dynasty because, well, Alabama wasn’t a dynasty yet. Sure, Saban was on his way to leading a decade of dominance unlike any we’d ever seen in college football history. Playing in 9 national championship games in a 13-year stretch is arguably more impressive than winning 6 rings in that time.

During that run, we’ve seen a handful of formidable West foes. There was Les Miles’ LSU, Gus Malzahn’s Auburn, Kevin Sumlin’s Texas A&M, Hugh Freeze’s Ole Miss and Ed Orgeron’s LSU. I suppose there was Jimbo Fisher’s A&M, but the rest of those programs were used in the past tense and technically, the Aggies are still trying to be that thorn in Alabama’s side under Fisher.

But already, it appears that Brian Kelly’s LSU is about to be the biggest West threat that Alabama has seen since it began this version of Alabama. In case you were wondering, Saban is 75-12 against West foes since the start of 2008 and it hasn’t missed out on West titles in consecutive years since 2010-11.

Don’t get triggered, Georgia fans. You’ll notice that I limited that to SEC West teams. Why? It’s a more interesting discussion when it’s a team Alabama sees on its schedule every year. As we know, LSU will be there no matter what.

(Also, Georgia just won 2 national titles and is about to be the overwhelming favorite to 3-peat for the first time since 1936 Minnesota. Do you really need me to break down why Georgia is a threat to Alabama?)

Kelly just did something that Sumlin and Malzahn both did: take down Saban in Year 1. After that, Sumlin and Malzahn went a combined 2-10 against Alabama. Despite all the praise those respective coaches received after their statement victories — A&M did so with the Johnny Manziel game in Tuscaloosa while Auburn did it with the Kick-6 — they were never threats to Alabama.

Why not? To be a threat to Alabama, you have to be recruiting top-5 classes annually, just like Georgia has been doing under Kirby Smart in each of the past 7 classes. In Sumlin’s 6 classes at A&M and Malzahn’s 8 classes at Auburn, they signed a combined … 1 top-5 class.

In hindsight, that was never gonna cut it. Sure, you can have a 1-off victory against Alabama without a slew of top-5 classes, but we’re talking about being a true threat to the Tide on a yearly basis. And if you think Malzahn’s Auburn teams were an annual threat to Alabama, perhaps you missed the part where he never had a team stay within single digits in Tuscaloosa.

As Georgia showed us, to be a true annual threat, you need 3 things:

  • Top-5 talent
  • The right offensive scheme
  • A coach with a proven track record

(Smart was “a coach with a proven track record” by the time he finally beat Alabama by virtue of being in the midst of his 5th consecutive top-7 finish.)

Miles’ LSU squads checked 2 of those 3 boxes, which was why once Alabama was in dynasty mode in 2012, the Tigers lost his final 6 games in that matchup. Sure, LSU started with a 3-2 advantage against Saban through the 2011 regular season, but after that, did LSU have the right offensive scheme under Miles to compete at that level annually? Nope.

Right now, the same appears to be true of A&M, which compiled that historic 2022 class — notice I said “compiled” instead of Saban’s word “bought” — but is in the midst of an offensive overhaul after 2 years of disappointment. For now, you can’t say that the Aggies check all 3 boxes.

For a minute, those Ole Miss teams in the mid-2010s appeared to be a threat, though recruiting violations and an escort service scandal halted that before it could really take off. Maybe that was why you couldn’t check the “coach with a proven track record” box for Ole Miss. Also, let’s not convince ourselves that Freeze stacked a bunch of top-5 classes. That stunning, too-good-to-be-true 2013 group was only No. 8 nationally. It was actually that 2016 group that ranked No. 5, but everything blew up a year later.

Orgeron’s LSU had top-5 talent with the right offensive scheme. Of course, that’s why it’s important to have a coach with a proven track record. How do you handle success? When Orgeron, Malzahn and Freeze all got those early victories against Saban’s Alabama, they were really experiencing their first taste of success as head coaches, and Sumlin had 1 Top 25 finish at Houston prior to his A&M arrival.

Hence, why we can have this discussion with Kelly.

He certainly checks the “coach with a proven track record” box, and before you tell me about his lack of Playoff success, tell me about the guy who had 8 seasons of double-digit wins prior to arriving at LSU … where he instantly won 10 games playing in the toughest division in the sport.

There was fear that Kelly wouldn’t adapt to his new surroundings and that he wouldn’t recruit enough talent in a new region of the country. In 2022 without a full cycle, he signed the No. 7 recruiting class and the No. 3 portal class. In 2023 with a full cycle, he has the No. 5 recruiting class and the No. 1 portal class.

To recap, Kelly is about to match the amount of top-5 classes signed by Sumlin, Freeze and Malzahn combined. From 2012-22, here were all the non-Alabama SEC West squads who signed a top-5 class nationally:

  • 2014 LSU
  • 2014 A&M
  • 2015 LSU
  • 2016 LSU
  • 2016 Ole Miss
  • 2019 LSU
  • 2019 A&M
  • 2020 LSU
  • 2021 LSU
  • 2022 A&M
  • 2023 LSU (as of Jan. 26)

We know LSU can stack top-5 classes in a way that no other non-Alabama SEC West team can. That, coupled with his ability to recruit the portal, is why Kelly’s post-Year 1 outlook is so positive. It’s not just signing elite talent at LSU. Miles had the wrong offensive scheme. Orgeron didn’t handle success well.

What’s standing in Kelly’s way? It isn’t talent. There aren’t 5 coaches in America with a more proven track record than Kelly, either.

Maybe the only thing you could knock Kelly for is not annually cranking out an elite offense. It wasn’t like Mike Denbrock was sitting at a 100% approval rating throughout 2022. Kelly’s track record for developing franchise NFL quarterbacks is nothing to write home about, either.

Then again, beating Saban has always been more about scheme than it’s been about having stud, future NFL quarterbacks. Nick Marshall, Bo Wallace, Chad Kelly, Johnny Manziel and Jarrett Stidham didn’t check those boxes. Jayden Daniels might be fall into that category one day, but for now, he’s the guy returning after leading LSU to a win against Alabama and a West title. Not bad for a guy who didn’t even have a full offseason to get the lay of the land.

The same could be said for Kelly, who hit the ground running from the moment he arrived in Baton Rouge. Bad Southern accent and dance videos aside, everything we saw from in Year 1 suggested that he knew what he signed up for. He’s not always going to crush the press conference and he could have some cringe-worthy moments down the road, but those things were never going to make or break his success against Alabama.

In 2023, Kelly will likely have a preseason top-10 team for an LSU team who has a shot to be the preseason media pick to win the West. Take that for what it is. In 2022, LSU didn’t receive a single first-place vote and we know how that turned out. Most teams who win 6 games and roll out 39 scholarship players for a bowl game aren’t expected to win the toughest division in sports.

Kelly soared past those Year 1 expectations. It’ll be increasingly difficult for him to live up to that awfully high bar.

It’s safe to say there’ll be a new expectation as long as Kelly is in Baton Rouge — be Alabama’s West threat unlike any we’ve seen during Saban’s run of dominance.

View Comments

  • Why is LSU the biggest threat? I guess they are in the West, BUT I think a bigger threat to Bama who plays Bama every year is UT. Heupel and the offense exposed Bama's secondary and hung 52 points, the most points against Bama in over 100 years. LSU hung 32 and needed OT to do that. Don't discount the Vols in this perspective Connor...

    • Your Vols also gave up 49 points to a non-lethal Bama offense... LSU gave up 31.

      LSU is the biggest threat to Alabama, not Tennessee. You need to be more worried about being a threat to UGA. Then again, LSU could be UGAs biggest threat also.

    • Not that they cannot get the players, but the fact is that Tennessee does not have near the state/area talent that Louisiana has. That is a huge advantage for LSU.

    • LSU is the biggest threat in the West but Tennessee's revival makes it harder for Bama to win the West because it means one more tough game.

      But this SEC West threat will be OBE (overcome by Exception) in 2024 when SEC goes to 16 teams and no divisions. Then the two highest rated/best record teams will go to SECCG (this year Tennessee would have probably went or Bama instead of LSU)

      When divisions are eliminated, rumor is 3 permanent rival games and 6 rotational games. Bama will have Auburn, Tennessee and perhaps LSU as permanent games. Tennessee should have Bama (3rd Saturday), Vandy (in-state SEC rival), and Kentucky (most played rival) but Florida is not out of the question to replace Kentucky.

        • Traditionally, there has been a lot of LSU/Arkansas/ Ole Miss/Miss St teams. So maybe those will be the three permanent rivals.

          Also the SEC has been pushing for an aTm - LSU rivalry but with 16 teams, aTm will have uTa and OK plus possibly of Mizzou in case it isn't LSU.

    • To win the West, Bama has to get past LSU...not TN. The only threat TN poses to Bama is in a potential SEC Championship game, but until TN can get past Georgia...

    • Waaaaaa….Tennessee deserves a seat at the Grown Folks Table too….waaaaaa…..we won 10 games

      Sit down chumps

  • The biggest threat to Alabama and all of college football is NIL and the transfer portal. The game is inching closer to the NFL model. The top teams have always had excellent starters, but depth was what made them the most difficult to beat. Now those stacked five star rosters are being depleted annually by NIL and the portal. Now players can be paid legally in college, what's the incentive to sit on the bench and wait when the NFL is the ultimate goal.

    To borrow a catch phrase from Nick Saban, create value for yourself now and get paid while doing it. Hard to do that with backup snaps. Unless something radically changes, I believe "pay for play" and college roster limits are the future for college football.

    • It is the NFL model with no rules and no one in control.

      What happened to Greg Sankey's 'Transition Committee?' Expected a recommendation that G5/P5 football separate from the NCAA and have its own governance structure.

    • Yours is the best post of all on this article. I agree that the portal is Sabin’s biggest threat. He isn’t a fan of the portal, nor is he a fan of an unregulated NIL.
      I’m giving Sabin a couple more years as a coach. By then other teams will have built strong teams through the portal and we’ll begin to see multi-loss seasons at Alabama. Sabin will have had enough of the portal and NIL and will call it a career.

      • Agree with you, but I'm not sure Saban will stay beyond next season. The game is rapidly changing, and he knows it. Staying only puts his legacy at risk. Just an opinion.

  • Braves the article is titled SEC West threat. In the west there are only two threats, lsu and atm. Because the west probably only has 1 season left, two at the most. Once tx and ok join there will likely be no more west as we know it today. So the article could be titled the biggest threat for 1-2 years...

    • I think you are absolutely correct. I'm not a fan of it either. Allowing tx and ou into the league still doesn't sit well with me. LSU is the biggest threat in the West. Kelly is a great coach and has an outstanding process by all accounts. He's recruiting the players to fit his style and has an increased athleticism versus his squads at ND. A&M has a good coach who had grown stubborn and it backfired. He corrected that by getting a proven offensive mind. Yeah yeah, he's "offensive" alright, but the man can coach football. With all of that said, I still think A&M is at least a year out from being a big threat assuming the Petrino experiment works out. Regardless, the talent assembled at both LSU and A&M is extremely impressive.

      • Texas A&M did beat LSU and that was a huge loss since it did make a difference and cost LSU a chance to be in the playoff.

    • AMEN. No divisions will change the calculus as it did in the Pac-12 last season when 2 former south division members, SC and Utah met in the champ game.

      The B1G sticking with divisions for another year is IMO, senseless. The East champ will again blow out the West champ in a nothing burger game.

  • Anyone see Coach Saban's comments this weekend regarding NIL. Interesting that SDS isn't talking about it.

  • Police are bootlickers who protect the bourgeoisie from the proletariat. The 1% pit you against your brother and laugh.

    • Really? Again.

      I live in SC and I see none of this WOKE stuff happening here. Go to your room son.

      • NOTHING 'WOKE' ABOUT RECOGNIZING THE INHERENT CORRUPTION AND RACISM OF THE USA POLICE!!!! OR ADMITTING YOUR 'PRESIDENT' DOESN'T KNOW HOW TO FORM A COMPLETE SENTENCE OR THOUGHT!!!! WHY DO YOU THINK SC/TN/BAMA/FL/GA/MS/LA ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF THE MOST EDUCATED STATES?? THINK ITS A COINCIDENCE THEY ALL VOTE RED??????????????????????? guess what its NOT!!

        • I have an idea. Let's get rid of all the police. That way I can come take whatever you have, that I want, all the while making you beg me to take it, and not your life. You would have to change your name though; you would be known as prey. Now you can start talking big like that would not be the case, but I know it will be, because I can smell it. I am a predator.

        • hey IDIOT...NOBODY SAID DISBAND THE POLICE. I WANT TO STOMP OUT CORRUPTION AND RACISM. I THINK ITS REASONABLE TO EXPECT MORE OUT OF THE OFFICERS WHO TAKE AN OATH TO SERVE AND PROTECT THEIR COMMUNITY (THAT MEANS EVERYONE IN IT, NOT JUST WHITEY). STOP YOUR STRAWMAN. CAN YOU EVEN ADMIT THAT SOME POLICE ARE CORRUPT??????????? OR ARE YOU A COWARD ON THE UVALDE POLICE FORCE?!?!?!?!?!?

        • "hey IDIOT…NOBODY SAID DISBAND THE POLICE."

          "Police are bootlickers who protect the bourgeoisie from the proletariat."

          SMH

        • HEY RONNY BOY- YOU DIDNT ADDRESS A SINGLE THING THAT MY COMMENT TALKED ABOUT. YOU MOVE THE GOALPOASTS. YOU MAKE STRAWMEN. YOU STICK YOU HEAD IN THE SAND. YOU ARE BEST AT WHATABOUTISM. please TRY to think rationally. are you saying there is no corruption or racism affiliated with police?????????????????

        • "YOU DIDNT ADDRESS A SINGLE THING THAT MY COMMENT TALKED ABOUT. "

          I addressed the fact that you're a complete idiot. Oh and you like to get teabagged.

    • You start criticizing police, and I think,”Cool”. Then you start with Marxist nonsense, and I’m like,”####, I hate communists. They are literally the worst people in history.”

  • LSU has been the biggest SEC West threat to Alabama for more than two decades. Wear your Captain Obvious hat proudly, Connor. You earned it.

    • Primarily LSU. However in some years, it's been Auburn. In Saban's 16 seasons at Alabama, LSU earned the SEC west champ 4 times and Auburn 3 times. It's been LSU, Auburn or Alabama since the 2006 Razorbacks. If you must go back further to complete a two decade review, Auburn won the west in 2004.

        • Since Saban took over at Alabama, LSU is 11-5 against Auburn. Kind of hard to give them their due. But once in a while they have a good team.

      • As far as SEC West titles since 2000...
        LSU won in 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2011, 2019, 2022.
        Auburn won in 2004, 2010, 2013, 2017.
        Arkansas won in 2002 and 2006.
        Alabama won in 2008, 2009, 2012, 2014-2016, 2018, 2020, 2021.

  • Connor, not to take anything away from LSU, but LSU and Bama tied for the SEC west championship. They are cochampions. LSU won the head to head tie breaker to determine who went to the title game, but they are listed as cochampions by the SEC.

    • I'm going to need to see that in writing.

      If LSU wins the tiebreaker, they are the Champions. Period. Not co-champions.

      Looking at the SEC website, they have a Championship drop-down menu. Clicking the link for Football I see that LSU is listed as the West Champion and Georgia is the East Champion. I don't see Alabama listed. At all. And they certainly weren't on the field for the game.

  • Kelly has never had a recruiting challenge in his career that I remember. He has also never proven his coaching is winning games compared to his institution’s talent draw. I’m willing to be convinced but I’m not betting Kelly ever wins SEC crown from this point forward and Id be more likely to bet he doesn’t win another SEC division… And I like Kelly on the surface, I think he’s a football man. Time will tell but I would say his career % will be about 60

    • Doing what Kelly did Year 1 after inheriting 38 scholarship players should have been named Coach of the Year.

      That being said, that program is going nowhere but up. Kelly will have another SEC West title under his belt in 2023, 2024 at the worst along with an SEC championship and no less than a national title game appearance.

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Connor O'Gara