Georgia football: The 1 thing that could derail Dawgs' hopes of a repeat ... is the Dawgs
The dust is beginning to settle on the college football landscape. The contenders have separated themselves from the pretenders, and a clearer picture of which teams can make a run at a national title is coming into focus.
As Georgia sits at No. 1 in the country, nearing a perfect regular season for the 2nd straight year, the question now is which of these contenders can spoil its hopes of a repeat national title.
I think that answer is clear. And it’s not Ohio State. It isn’t Michigan, either. With respect to TCU, it won’t be the Horned Frogs, and it’s not going to be Tennessee in a rematch.
If you’ll excuse the cliche, the only team that can stop Georgia from winning another championship is … Georgia.
It’s clear. The Dawgs are the class of college football again in 2022. The offense can hum along with the very best in the country. The Buckeyes and Vols get the headlines with elite talent at the skill positions, many of whom will be playing on Sundays next year, but Stetson Bennett IV and Co. are every bit as explosive.
The defense shows time and again why it is still among the nation’s very best. And since the return of Jalen Carter, it has once again become a terror for opposing quarterbacks.
We know all of this. Georgia is elite.
But on Saturday against Mississippi State, the Dawgs showed again why they aren’t perfect, and showed the 1 Achilles’ heel that could haunt them against a team that can score points in bulk.
There were the turnovers. Bennett threw 2 interceptions, 1 on an underthrow after his arm got hit on the pass and another that was tipped and hauled in by a defensive lineman.
There was also the punt return for a touchdown. After being forced to punt near the end of the 1st half, the Dawgs allowed a 63-yard return by Zavion Thomas that cut their lead to 17-12 at the break.
Georgia eventually extended its lead down the stretch, winning 45-19 as expected. But the miscues kept Mississippi State within striking distance far longer than it should have been. That has been the case on more than 1 occasion this season.
Georgia has committed 13 turnovers and has a negative-3 turnover margin. That puts it in the middle of the pack, 48th in the former statistic and 84th in the latter. On punt return average, the Dawgs are dead last nationally by allowing 22 yards per return. That number should, of course, be taken with a grain of salt, as opponents have only 5 total returns all year — meaning more than half of Georgia’s allowed yardage came on Thomas’ touchdown.
Still, let’s put the turnover margin into context.
Since 2009 — a period we’ll call the “Alabama Era” — only once has a national champion had a negative turnover margin. Clemson, in 2016, committed 28 turnovers, near the bottom in the entire country, and finished with a negative-1 margin.
That’s a lot of turnovers. But it’s also a lot of takeaways. That Clemson team was explosive and opportunistic and managed to overcome that deficiency to win it all.
The rest of the teams during the Alabama era? All very solid margins. Eight of the 13 champions finished in the top 15 nationally. In fact, outside of Clemson, last year’s Georgia squad was the worst on the list in the category.
So what does this mean?
Does it mean Georgia has an uphill climb to repeat just because of some marginally significant historical trend? Not really. Not when the eye test tells us it is clearly the top team in the country.
What it does mean, though, is that minor shortcomings like this can be magnified enormously against elite opponents. Though Georgia is likely to finish the regular season undefeated, it is preparing for a gauntlet of 3 games against top-10 teams in pursuit of more hardware.
There is little room for error down the stretch, and the Dawgs must take all steps to manage this issue as the season winds down.