Breaking down the weekend’s SEC slate …

Game of the Week: Alabama (-20.5) at Texas

The stakes: Is it possible to overstate how much this game means for Steve Sarkisian‘s future at Texas? Sure. But not by much.

In fact, as measuring-stick games go, this one is about as explicit as it gets. Texas fired a winning coach, Tom Herman, explicitly for not winning enough. It hired Sarkisian, coordinator of the highest-scoring offense in SEC history during Alabama’s 2020 national title run, explicitly to bring Bama’s championship culture to Austin. (Its explicit attempts to lure Nick Saban himself having repeatedly failed.) Sark’s first season was an explicit flop: A wipeout loss at Arkansas in September; a second-half collapse against Oklahoma in October; a 6-game losing streak in Big 12 play, capped by a humiliating upset at the hands of lowly Kansas in November. The Longhorns were explicitly not “back,” by any definition.

So there’s no need to play coy here. Even Sarkisian, who lamely attempted to downplay its significance earlier this week, understands better than anyone the implications of this specific matchup at this crucial moment in his tenure: Is Texas finally turning the corner in Year 2, the point when big-ticket rebuilding jobs tend to begin delivering some return on the initial investment? Or is it in for yet another round of more of the same? If it’s the latter, pretty much every sentient human in the state grasps that by sundown the clock will be ticking.

Point spread notwithstanding, there’s cautious optimism around the program — emphasis on cautious — that a competitive, four-quarter game against Bama will confirm the project is on schedule. As badly as last year ended, the offseason was a success, beginning with a top-five recruiting class that addressed the most pressing needs along the offensive line, and culminating with the arrival of coveted QB Quinn Ewers, a Texas high school legend who redshirted in 2021 at Ohio State. (Arch Manning’s commitment in June was another endorphin boost, albeit one that won’t pay off anytime soon.) Offensively, 7 of 11 starters in last week’s 52-10 win over UL-Monroe were in their first or second year in the program, including Ewers, blue-chip targets Xavier Worthy and Ja’Tavion Sanders, and two true-freshman starters up front. The defense, a liability last year, consisted almost entirely of upperclassmen, mostly fifth-year seniors. The roster as a whole comes in at no. 6 in 247Sports’ Team Talent Composite, landing between future SEC rivals Texas A&M and LSU. Man for man, the ‘Horns look like contenders.

As a team? TBD, as ever. Resources, talent, and optimism have never been in question, a combination that’s yielded mostly angst. Symbolically, Texas’ decline began the last time it played Alabama, in the 2010 BCS Championship Game, when Colt McCoy’s early exit doomed the Longhorns’ chances and ushered in a lost decade. It would be fitting, in some grand narrative sense, if Saturday turned out to be the moment they emerged from the wilderness. More likely, it will be another reminder of how far they still have left to go.

The stat: 7.0 yards per attempt

That was Bryce Young‘s average gain on 28 attempts in Alabama’s Week 1 win over Utah State, nearly 2 full yards below his season average in 2021. Despite his overall efficiency — 5 touchdowns, 0 INTs — Young didn’t bother challenging the Aggies downfield, missing on his only attempt of 20+ yards and going just 6/13 in the intermediate 10-to-19-yard range, per Pro Football Focus. His long gain of the night covered just 25 yards, a mark he eclipsed in every game last year.


Bryce Young pass attempts vs. Utah State (via Pro Football Focus)
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Not that a blowout win over a sacrificial offering from the Mountain West tells us anything we didn’t already know about a player as proven and decorated as Young. But it didn’t get the Tide any closer to answering their biggest offseason question, either: Who replaces Jameson Williams as the resident big-play threat? The starting wideouts, Jermaine Burton, Traeshon Holden and true freshman Kobe Prentice, hauled in 5 receptions apiece for a combined 165 yards and 4 touchdowns but didn’t threaten the Aggies deep. Maybe that aspect of the offense was kept deliberately under wraps in a game it wasn’t needed. (Although that hasn’t been the case in the past.) Or maybe it was due to the fact that the guy Bama recruited for that role, Louisville transfer Tyler Harrell, is in a walking boot until further notice.

Regardless, it was Williams’ downfield juice that helped the offense take off last year over the second half of the season, and which was sorely missed in his absence against Auburn (due to an ejection for targeting) and Georgia in the CFP Championship (due to a torn ACL). The sooner Young develops a rapport with a successor, the less vulnerable the Tide will be to falling into a funk on any given Saturday.

The big question: Is Quinn Ewers the real deal?

Ewers is arguably the biggest wild card in college football — a totally unproven rookie on one hand, a plausible Heisman candidate on the other. As a prospect, he was the bluest of the blue-chips, becoming the first quarterback to achieve a perfect score in 247Sports’ composite rating since Vince Young in 2002. By the end of his junior year of high school in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, he was already such a made man that he decided to skip his senior year, reclassify as a member of the 2021 recruiting class, and enroll early at Ohio State in order to cash in on NIL opportunities that the governing body overseeing Texas high schools still forbids. (In the process, Ewers’ defection from a commitment to UT was at least a minor factor in getting Tom Herman fired.) After serving what amounted to a gap year in Columbus, he transferred home to find the table in Austin all set and an empty seat waiting.

His debut was … eh, basically fine. After an inauspicious start …

… Ewers settled down, finishing 16/24 for 225 yards with 2 touchdowns and at least one 5-star throw into a tight window:

The pick we can file (for now) under Dumb Freshman Stuff, which at this stage of the learning curve is part of the deal against any defense, and especially against Alabama’s. Again, Texas is starting two true freshmen on the o-line, including LT Kelvin Banks Jr., who — while highly touted in his own right — will spend much of the afternoon opposite Will Anderson Jr., Dallas Turner and/or Chris Braswell in the most dramatic possible leap in degree of difficulty over the edge rushers from UL-Monroe. If Ewers has a green light on Saturday, go ahead and chalk him up for a few more plays under the DFS column of varying degrees of severity. On the other hand, if he manages to offset the lapses with enough 5-star plays to keep Texas in the game, UT fans can come away feeling like he’s on his way to living up to the hype.

The key matchup: Texas RB Bijan Robinson vs. Alabama LB Henry To’oTo’o

In the age of the spacebacker, To’oTo’o is a throwback: A heat-seeking “Mike” type who looks like he belongs to the days when the first line on the job description was butting heads with opposing fullbacks. Alas, he’s playing in an era that requires him to spend more time chasing sideline to sideline than thumping in the box. He has the range, finishing as Alabama’s top tackler in 2021 in the middle of one of the nation’s best rushing defenses, after leading Tennessee in total stops in both ’19 and ’20.

But it’s a different story against the pass, where To’oTo’o has graded out among the SEC’s worst coverage defenders per PFF each of the past 2 seasons. And against Robinson, the most versatile and productive back in the college game, Texas has a chance to create advantages that Sarksian’s system is largely designed to exploit.

Anything above and beyond a workmanlike effort from Robinson on the ground has to be considered a win against Bama’s overpowering front seven. Failing to get their most explosive player involved as a receiver, on the other hand, would be a serious missed opportunity.

The verdict

Alabama’s track record in this portion of the schedule is absurd: Since their infamous loss to UL-Monroe in 2007, Saban’s first season, the Tide are 53-0 in regular-season nonconference games, with every single one of those wins — Every. Single. One. Of. Them. — decided by double digits. The closest any nonconference opponent has come in that span is 10 points, most recently in the 2014 opener vs. West Virginia.

Whatever else there is to say about Texas, its talent level and its expectations, at the end of the day it’s an outfit coming off a 5-7 season with an untested quarterback and unresolved questions across the depth chart. And however much they might protest the idea of a “moral victory,” if the Longhorns find themselves in a remotely winnable game in the fourth quarter it will be exactly that. Sometimes just getting out of a competitive game with your dignity intact is a win, and this is one of those times.
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• Alabama 44 | Texas 20

Kentucky at Florida (-5.5)

Mum’s the word on the availability of Kentucky RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., whose status continues to loom large for the Wildcats’ offense. Details surrounding his absence remain hazy, and Mark Stoops hasn’t exactly been eager to clarify the situation – possibly because he doesn’t have all the answers yet himself. Kentucky Sports Radio reported earlier this week that Rodriguez’s absence stems from an eligibility issue, not his offseason legal problems as initially reported, and the school is still awaiting word from the NCAA on when (or if) he’ll be cleared to play. Unless it comes down at the last second, presumably he remains on ice.

At any rate, without their resident workhorse against Miami (Ohio) the Wildcats’ ground game was a wreck, managing just 50 yards on 1.9 per carry. Worse, backup Ramon Jefferson, whose late arrival via the transfer portal now seems more clearly like a response to the uncertainty surrounding Rodriguez, suffered a torn ACL. That shifts the onus to QB Will Levis, who for all the hype over his next-level potential has rarely been asked to carry the offense with his arm: In Kentucky’s six regular-season wins over Power 5 opponents last year, he topped out at just 22 attempts, including a 7-for-17, 87-yard outing against Florida. (By contrast, Rodriguez averaged 23.7 carries in the same games.) If Levis really is the guy the mock drafts think he is, a trip to the Swamp with sketchy run support is a golden opportunity to prove it.
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• Florida 31 | Kentucky 23

Tennessee (-6.5) at Pittsburgh

The result of a non-conference road trip in Week 2 isn’t going to make or break Tennessee’s season. Still, given that this is one of the more winnable of the half-dozen or so swing games on the schedule, there is some urgency. Last year’s loss to Pitt, a 41-34 decision in Knoxville, was the first in a series of disappointments in close games – the Vols went on to finish 1-3 in games decided by single digits, all of them certifiable nail-biters. This year, the most direct path out of 7-win purgatory is flipping that record.

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As for Pitt, the Panthers might be marked for a step back after losing the highly decorated headliners of their ACC championship run, QB Kenny Pickett and WR Jordan Addison. But that doesn’t mean it has to be a big one. The new quarterback, USC transfer Kedon Slovis, projects as a future pro in his own right, and wideouts Jared Wayne and Konata Mumpfield looked the part in the Panthers’ opening-night win over West Virginia, combining for 160 yards on 10 catches.

The offensive line was another story. Although it projected as a strength, with five returning starters all in their 5th or 6th season, the OL struggled vs. WVU, allowing 17 QB pressures and six sacks, per PFF. To be fair, Slovis shared in the responsibility for that number, frequently holding onto the ball too long. (As a rule, sacks are QB stat.) When the ball left on time, though, the results were usually good: 10 of his 16 completions went for 15+ yards. The best-case scenario for the Vols involves hearing All-SEC edge rusher Byron Young‘s name early and often.
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Tennessee 36 | • Pittsburgh 31

South Carolina at Arkansas (-8.5)

Spencer Rattler stock report: Trending down already. Against Georgia State, Rattler was picked twice, sacked thrice, and ranked last among Week 1 SEC starters in pass efficiency and QBR. In context, however, he was arguably the least of the offense’s problems. The running game struggled to gain traction, averaging just 2.5 yards per carry with a long gain of 13, and PFF dinged 4 of 5 starting o-linemen for allowing multiple pressures apiece. South Carolina’s special teams were as productive as the offense, scoring 2 of the team’s 4 touchdowns directly via blocked punts and setting up a third on a successful fake field goal.

As ecstatic as that made Shane Beamer, housing blocked punts is not exactly a sustainable source of energy. Rattler may not be a one-man show, but he was recruited to be a difference-maker on one of the league’s most pedestrian attacks. With the warmup in the books, the SEC opener would be a nice place to start.
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• Arkansas 30 | South Carolina 19

Appalachian State at Texas A&M (-18.5)

Appalachian State’s opener, a wild, 63-61 loss to North Carolina, was even more bananas in real time than the final score suggests – there were 9 combined touchdowns in the fourth quarter, the last 3 of them coming in the final 31 seconds. App. State took the L despite racking up 649 yards and 38 first downs.

So while A&M should have no problem scoring, the rebuilt front seven could be in for its first test. The defense barely broke a sweat in last week’s 31-0 beatdown of Sam Houston, holding the Bearkats to 198 yards on 3.6 per play. The Mountaineers are better equipped, beginning with thunder-and-lightning RB combo Camerun Peoples and Nate Noel, who together have run more than 4,000 yards with 38 touchdowns between them. Throw in 6th-year QB Chase Brice – still best known as Trevor Lawrence’s former backup at Clemson despite 26 career starts at App. State and Duke – and a long-in-the-tooth o-line, and you’ve got a group that at the very least has played far too much football to wilt under the din of the 12th Man.

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• Texas A&M 38 | Appalachian State 17

Mississippi State (-11.5) at Arizona

Mississippi State came out hot last week in a 49-23 win over Memphis, and Arizona confirmed its candidacy for the title of Most Improved Team in America in a 38-20 upset over San Diego State. But let’s be real here: You’re not tuning in to a Mike Leach team in an 11 p.m. ET kickoff in the desert for a game that makes sense, and factoring in Arizona’s wildcard energy only amplifies this one’s late-night Twilight Zone potential. I’m not necessarily going on the record predicting, like, an errant Will Rogers pass late in the third quarter will disappear into a wormhole to a previously unknown dimension.

But I am not not predicting that. (But I am not ruling it out.)

Anyway, Arizona worked the portal hard following last year’s 1-11 debacle, and it paid off in the win over SDSU: Starting QB Jayden de Laura (Washington State), leading rusher DJ Williams (Auburn/Florida State), and leading receiver Jacob Cowing (UTEP) all shone in their first game as Wildcats. Cowing, especially – who was pursued by Mississippi State last winter, among many others – lived up to the hype, averaging 19.0 yards on 8 catches, including 3 gains of 25+ yards and 3 touchdowns.

Between the transfers and blue-chip freshman Tetairoa McMillan (3 for 53 yards, 1 TD in the opener), this is a very different offense than the low-octane attacks that finished last in the Pac-12 in scoring in 2020 and ’21. If the Bulldogs are up for a shootout, Zona has the firepower to hold up its end of the deal.
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Mississippi State 41 | • Arizona 33

Missouri at Kansas State (-7.5)

Running backs are often described as “instinctive,” probably more so than any other position. Vision and open-field moves are like a sixth sense – either you have it or you don’t. Prolific K-State RB Deuce Vaughn definitely has it, in spades …

… but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t do his homework, too. Here’s how he described that run to a local beat writer, detailing exactly how he turned South Dakota’s free safety into a pretzel and how he literally wrote it down on a piece of paper before it happened:

“I wrote in my notes that if no. 6 was coming down from the post that he opens up his shoulders to the sideline and tries to kind of wall the running back off into the sideline to try to give himself an angle. But if you’re able to cut back behind him will he turn his hips and flip to run back inside and catch you? Or will he keep himself open? That’s one of the things I wrote down.

“So whenever I made my initial cut to go inside and he didn’t flip his hips I knew I could get back inside of him, because he wouldn’t have enough time to flip once I got right up on him. It was kind of crazy, the fact that I wrote it down throughout the week and saw that on film and then it came int fruition on Saturday.”

I guess that’s what the game looks like to you when you’re so fast everyone else seems like they’re moving in The Matrix.
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• Kansas State 34 | Missouri 24

San José State at Auburn (-23.5)

Auburn will continue to rotate quarterbacks TJ Finley and Robby Ashford, whose performance against Mercer vaulted him from bit player to legitimate contender for the full-time job. Where Finley looked ordinary as QB1, finishing 9/14 with 1 TD, 2 INTs, and no impact as a runner, Ashford made a big impression off the bench, generating chunk plays with his arm and legs, and even as a blocker.

All relevant caveats apply to Mercer, but that goes for Finley’s meh outing, as well. Although he remains atop the depth chart, the distinction seems much less clear-cut than it did at this time last week. And with Penn State on deck, Saturday probably marks the end of the platoon. If the results are as lopsided as they were in the opener, the decision might just make itself.
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• Auburn 38 | San José State 10

Wake Forest (-13.5) at Vanderbilt

The big news in Nashville is the apparent return of Wake Forest’s All-ACC quarterback, Sam Hartman, who was cleared to play earlier this week and is expected to start after sitting out the Demon Deacons’ season-opening win over VMI due to a condition involving blood clotting. From the outside, that came as a surprise: When Hartman was initially ruled out last month with an undisclosed medical issue, the implication seemed to be that “indefinitely” meant all or most of the season. Instead, he’s back in Week 2. The point spread, which opened with Vanderbilt getting around 6.5 points in Hartman’s absence, has moved toward Wake by a full touchdown.

Still, a home date against a Power 5 opponent with a roughly similar talent level is a good opportunity for Vandy to recalibrate after an encouraging start. The Commodores are clearly trending up in Year 2 under Clark Lea, dispatching Hawai’i and Elon by a combined 64 points in their first 2 games – marginal competition, yes, but for a team whose only two wins last year came by a combined five points against Colorado State and UConn, a tangible step up from rock bottom. QB Mike Wright is emerging as a true dual-threat, accounting for 10 total touchdowns without a turnover. A competitive, four-quarter outing vs. Wake would be another sign heading into SEC play that the Dores’ 21-game conference losing streak is due to end.
– – –
• Wake Forest 39 | Vanderbilt 20

Scoreboard

Week 1 record: 8-2 straight-up | 2-7 vs. spread