What's the future of bowl games? Where there's legitimate concern and where there's overreaction
It’s a fair question to ask.
Ten years from now, what will bowl games look like? Will they still exist with that 6-win threshold? Is there still enough incentive for corporate sponsors? What, if anything, can be done to increase incentives to avoid bowl opt-outs?
It does feel like we’re at a bit of a crossroads with the current postseason format, especially as Playoff expansion is on the horizon in 2024. With college campuses set to host first-round matchups in December, there’s never been more incentive to reach the Playoff, and perhaps, that means there’s never been more of a letdown to miss the field.
The optics of decreased attendance certainly don’t favor the 40 non-Playoff bowls moving forward, but optics don’t always tell the full story.
So what is the full story? And what do the people with stake in the game think about the present and future of bowls?
“I think bowl games are gonna continue to be here,” TransPerfect Chief Revenue Officer Kevin Obarski told SDS. “I think it’s a great opportunity for the universities and the teams to continue to practice to get themselves to play in amazing game here and then going into the future, too.”
TransPerfect took over as the title sponsor of the Music City Bowl back in 2020. The first year of the bowl game was canceled because of COVID,. Since then, it had both sides of the spectrum in terms of the non-Playoff bowl experience.
In the company’s first game as the Music City Bowl sponsor in 2021, Tennessee and Purdue played in a 48-45 overtime game that recorded 5.6 million viewers, which was the most-viewed non-New Year’s 6 bowl of the season and the 3rd-most viewed non-New Year’s 6 bowl game in the past 6 seasons. A thrilling ending made a difference.
Purdue Wins The Music City Bowl On A Walk-Off Overtime FG Against Tennessee!!! #BoilerUp #MusicCityBowl pic.twitter.com/lQLnOmXiwa
— SportsGridTV (@SportsGridTV) December 31, 2021
It peaked with 8.9 million viewers, and in the final 15 minutes, it was the No. 2 trending topic on Instagram.
“I would bet 80% of all of those people had probably never heard of TransPerfect,” Obarski said.
It was ideal for a bowl sponsor like “TransPerfect” who admittedly wasn’t a household name and had more brand awareness incentives to be gained from a competitive game. It was the type of game that confirmed why the company initially wanted to get involved in bowl sponsorship back in 2012 before beginning those conversations with the Music City Bowl in 2018. It helped recruit employees and clients in a unique way for a company with quarter-to-quarter growth over the last 30 years.
Of course, the circumstances of 2022 were a different story. There were opt-outs galore — neither Kentucky nor Iowa had their respective starting quarterbacks — and the over/under hovered around 31 points. The game also produced a 21-0 result with a combined 391 total yards and 1 offensive touchdown.
So was it a bad return on investment to have approximately 27,000 less fans in paid attendance than the previous and a non-competitive game? Not necessarily.
Even in that scenario, the game drew 2.966 million viewers, which was more than double the most-watched college basketball game that week and more than 6 times as many viewers as the most-viewed NBA regular season game that week. The Music City Bowl, despite the fact that it went in the same noon ET time slot as the Sugar Bowl and it wasn’t competitive, was still the 12th most-watched bowl game. You can bet the legalization of sports betting in 35 states (that number went to 36 when Ohio became legal on New Year’s Day) might’ve had something to do with that.
There’s still tremendous upside for a bowl game sponsor, even if it’s between a pair of 6-6 teams on a weeknight. Hence, why the Liberty Bowl between Arkansas and Kansas drew an average of 3.9 million viewers — that’s right in line with the Christmas day NBA game ratings — to watch the 3-overtime thriller. Sure, the headline was “Rose Bowl draws lowest viewership in game history,” but Penn State-Utah still got over 10 million viewers and paid attendance was 94,873.
That’s great incentive for bowl sponsors, who don’t have a long list of places where they can ensure they get their name on an event with millions of eyeballs, which aren’t limited to the traditional TV viewer.
“I don’t think we would make the decision just on the ratings,” Obarski said. “It’s important for us, but how do we activate that sponsorship all season long? We’re able to activate the sponsorship whether you’re at the game, whether you’re watching the game or whether you’re following along on Twitter.”
And if you don’t know what Obarski meant by “activate the sponsorship,” look no further than the mayo overload we now get annually in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.
There’s no other bowl game like us…
— Duke’s Mayo Bowl (@DukesMayoBowl) December 31, 2022
In-game optics add to the product, though the TV eyeballs are what really move the needle. You’d never know that the Mayo Bowl had fewer viewers (2.676 million average) than the Music City Bowl.
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl CEO Gary Stokan pointed out how beneficial it is that Nielsen began tracking out-of-home ratings in 2020. You can also get “live” and “same day” ratings combined for those who record games. The Peach Bowl thriller, which concluded with a last-second field goal as the ball dropped on New Year’s Eve, drew 22.1 million viewers, which was the most viewers for a semifinal game since Year 1 of the Playoff format when Ohio State-Alabama drew 28.27 million viewers. The 2022 Peach Bowl, a Playoff semifinal, peaked at 23.9 million viewers.
But the future of bowl games isn’t really about whether the Playoff will draw eyeballs. “At the end of the day, the CFP is gonna make its money with TV,” Stokan said. We’ve got 9 years worth of data that shows why bowl sponsors, TV networks and advertisers want a piece of the Playoff action.
More pressing is the issue of bowl opt-outs once the Playoff expands. Can anything be done? And what’s the urgency like from bowl executives?
“I do worry about the bowls that aren’t New Year’s 6 and that aren’t ESPN bowls, how the (expanded) Playoff is gonna affect them,” said Stokan, who had a phenomenal Peach Bowl audience for the Playoff game but dealt with stars Kenny Pickett and Kenneth Walker III opting out of the non-Playoff New Year’s 6 game in 2021. “We’re already seeing a lot of opt-outs in bowl games that aren’t semifinal games. That’s the next unintended consequence.”
The New Year’s 6 Bowl CEOs hop on a conference call every 2 weeks. They discuss problems like opt-outs and if they can create bigger rewards for players in non-Playoff bowl games. Is NIL the solution? If it is, it certainly isn’t a clear one.
Besides the fact that it’s a state-by-state issue until there’s federal legislation, Stokan questioned if a $50,000 cash prize for a potential bowl winner or MVP would be enough incentive for someone with a $20 million signing bonus on the way (that’s what a top-5 pick is slotted to receive). Besides, it’s not just opt-outs by future NFL Draft picks that are hurting the product of the non-Playoff bowls.
“We’re the 2nd-most favorite sport in this country behind the NFL and it’s in terrible condition,” Stokan said. “To have what we’re going through in December, with (Early Signing Period), transfer portal, coaches leaving, getting ready for bowl games, it’s a mess. Even the opt-outs. We need to deal with first-round draft picks. How are we gonna provide them with some sort of insurance or coverage? We’ve got to work with the NFL. Where’s the relationship with the NFL owners?
“There are so many issues that we should be dealing with and unfortunately, we all talk about it, but we gotta get something done.”
There’s also an interesting NIL-based idea that’s being discussed for those who opt in to bowl games and who don’t necessarily have an NFL future — get the individual collectives to set up trusts and/or future employment opportunities.
“We keep pandering to the 1% when they’re gonna be fine,” Stokan said. “They’re gonna get their opportunity, they’re gonna get their signing bonus. They play 4, 5, 15 years, whatever. It’s up to them. But the 99% of the kids who come to college for the opportunity to get a degree, let’s get them a job because those are the people who are going to comprise the majority of our society and we’re not doing anything with them.”
Stokan expressed hope that incoming NCAA president Charlie Baker would appoint a college football commissioner to deal with those aforementioned football-specific issues. In the meantime, it’ll be up to the current Power 5 commissioners like Greg Sankey to push for an end to the Early Signing Period. As Stokan alluded to, the ideal result of that would be having reduced pre-bowl personnel movement both with coaches leaving for other jobs/getting fired and players hitting the transfer portal, which is open until Jan. 18.
Clearly, there are plenty of details that need to be figured out. Even something like college campuses hosting first-round Playoff games has logistical issues that have to be navigated. For example, what happens if a small town like Clemson is asked to host a Playoff game the same weekend of December graduation? Will there be enough hotels to support that?
Questions like that are being asked because while it seems like a simple postseason formula — give every mediocre team a postseason stage, have millions of viewers, make money, rinse, repeat — there are countless layers to it. There’s no sister model to the college football postseason. Frankly, there’s really nothing remotely similar to bowl season.
Perhaps that’s why it feels like there’s so much unknown. What we know is that bowl sponsors don’t appear to be going anywhere because as long as eyeballs are there, so too is corporate incentive. What we don’t know is what solution (if any) will be in place to increase player incentive for non-Playoff bowl games. Players sell tickets and while in-stadium attendance isn’t a deal-breaker, surely nobody likes the optics of a sparse crowd.
An interesting new era awaits. Bowl games will continue to be here. We have TV to thank for that.
But to borrow a line that Sankey likes to recite from Bob Dylan, “the times, they are a-changin’.”
I’m not sure how NIL can be part of the solution when that would be blatant pay for play just for a specific game.
NIL could help, but that’s not the answer. The games are pure exhibition games. Top-tier talent will continue to opt-out.
The explosion of the number of bowl games was the beginning of their irrelevance. Watching a lower-tier bowl game with maybe 5,000 fans in the stadium is just not what we all enjoy watching. Those bowl games give the teams more practices and allow the school to have more TV exposure. Otherwise very little is accomplished. Their total insignificance was sealed when the Playoffs began.
You bring a spoiled Tide fan’s perspective to this discussion AFan. The lesser bowls are all about the fans of lesser teams that don’t typically make the playoff field (unlike the Tide which usually does) and millions around the country who bet money on those lesser bowl games.
The Nielsen numbers speak for themselves. Even the Music City Bowl blows college basketball away in terms of viewers.
He’s not entirely wrong. They oversaturated the market with bowl games. Football is king. Has been and will be for the foreseeable future. I am not wanting to watch a 5-7 vs 6-6 matchup. I think 7-5 or 8-4 should be the qualifying mark for bowl games.
Once the CFPs started you heard very little about the bowls until it was the time to play them. They put them on TV at times that no one with a job can watch. The ratings have decreased as has attendance. I would say that the evidence shows that the proliferation of the bowls and the CFP has had a major negative impact on the bowls not named NY6.
This is why I believe an expanded playoff is good for college football. There is more to play for now. That top 12 playoff ranking would have produced outstanding TV numbers and some of those games would have been a blast to watch. Definitely would have gotten some better matches then what was chosen.
Also, something else I think could potentially make some bowl games better is getting rid of the conference designated bowl system. Just pair up similar teams regardless of conference. I know the almight dollar will keep this from happening but it’s a start.
Here’s a fact of life: That which stops growing, starts dying. Maybe, we have already reached saturation and some of the lesser bowls will begin to disappear.
However, trust me when I tell you that there will always be a lasting appetite among fans for watching evenly matched football teams from different conferences, with winning records, play each other in bowl games. That appetite will easily consume bowl games between the top 64 teams in the FBS every year.
I can actually even envision the losers of the first playoff round, played on university campuses, getting invited to play in a non NY-6 bowl game scheduled a couple of weeks later.
Of course, the NY-6 bowls will be busy hosting the 2nd and 3rd playoff rounds. That’s what the argument with the Rose Bowl over date flexibility was all about, since four of the six will host round two and the other two will host round three a week later, rotating which bowls host which round every year.
While I kind of agree with you and don’t watch many bowl games, the TV numbers seem to show we may be wrong. People do watch on TV.
I thought playoffs would go to 16 teams and that could give you 15 bowl games.
Does anybody know what 11 bowls they will be using? most likly will be highest bidder..
Hopefully the one’s with the craziest names:
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
HOMETOWN LENDERS BAHAMAS BOWL
JIMMY KIMMEL LA BOWL PRESENTED BY STIFEL
SERVPRO FIRST RESPONDER BOWL
BAD BOY MOWERS PINSTRIPE BOWL
Change the Pinstripe bowl to just the Lawnmower bowl and change the sponsor every year. Snapper, Grasshopper, Kubota, John Deere…..
Boaty McBoatface Bowl brought to you by Ranger Boats.
I miss the old days when you knew what bowl it was when you heard it. Now, in a lot of them, you have no clue because of the sponsor carousel.
I miss the old days before everyone was cancelled.
Me too.
I can’t be canceled so it does not affect me. People start on at be then realize just how few f*cks I could give and just move on.
be=me
Not sure what 11 Bowls games you are referring to. In 2024 the Quarterfinals will be the Sugar, Rose, Peach, and Fiesta Bowls.
The Semifinals will be the Orange and the Cotton Bowls.
The only game that is ever out for bid in the Championship Game.
Get rid of bowls. Go to a playoff system like the NFL.
Bowls or the the amount of bowl games isn’t the problem. None of this opting out happened during the BCS era. This is a generational issue these kids are the poster child of buy what they are worth and sell for what they think they are worth. The amount of opt outs is insane Bryce Young is a guaranteed 1st rounder and played. It is a me first generation with over inflated self worth. There are only 64 1st and 2nd round picks so there shouldn’t be this many opt outs.
You’re right. Players used to play for their university. Now it’s the “all about me” attitude. Now for the top of players, the university is just temporary destination. Part of the cause is the scholarships are for 1 year. I recall the days they were for 4 years. The schools were just as committed to the players as were the players to the school.
as long as sponsors, cities and bowls are happy with the returns, perceived or real, they will be around. Its all about the benjamins.
The Great Mouse is hungry for content,and as long as they want bowls,there will be bowls.
That sums it up way better than the article did.
“I think it’s a great opportunity for the universities and the teams to continue to practice to get themselves to play in amazing game here and then going into the future, too.”
This. I think a lot of fans miss this. Many fans only see opt outs making bowl games meaningless. Bowl games are not meaningless. I think transfers and NFL draft prospects should get out of the way and give younger players the playing time. A bowl game is an opportunity, not to mention the extra 15 practices. Plus it’s still the best thing on TV.
100%
Opt outs. No one can declare for the portal until after the bowl games. Or if they do, they sit out a year. If they opt out or just quit the team, where ever they might go they sit a year. Offer injury insurance polices for draft opt outs. Probably won’t work but there it is. a Million dollar injury policy with stipulations.
Bowl games. Yes, with the field going to 12 (should be 8) some bowls just need to shut down. 7 wins minimum. You mention the Liberty bowl. I read that Arkansas was down to 55 scholarship players at kickoff because of draft opt outs, transfers and injuries. Then lost two more in the first minutes. Kansas as bad as they are, losing 7 of their last 8, should have cleaned Arky’s clock but didn’t. Never should have been a question. Instead it took on that Spring exhibition game feeling, crazy bad officiating and all. A&M probably saw it as a blessing that they weren’t needed at 5-7 fill a slot. Rice University got that embarrassing assignment. Too funny. It’s all changed because of NIL and the portal and you just can’t count on who will be with you come game day. Like it or not, it’s just the way it is and will only become a bigger issue.
Almost all non NY6 bowls are owned by ESPN. They provide their own programing and get to keep all the revenue generated. They will make money. The cities get ticket and concession sales. If one bowl fails, ESPN just starts another one.
The players think they are pros and that all this NIL money puts them in charge. They are not old enough to realize that the person paying you is really in charge. If they want to stop opt outs, then put in in the NIL contracts that if they do it, they forfeit the NIL money.
Unfortunately, that would be illegal. Performance clauses are not allowed in NIL contracts.
You can get around that by saying they have to be a member of a team until the season ends. This is lawyer stuff, there is always a way around it.
It seems that student-athletes are on a path to be classified as employees as some point in the future. When that happens and how that happens will have a lot to say on bowl games – particularly the lesser bowl games. If schools have to pay bowl travel expenses plus wages/payroll taxes/worker’s comp premiums for 80 plus players, without a deep-pocket sponsor I can see the lesser bowls folding.
Tax attorney’s are smiling.
Good point. My guess is that when it comes to that, the major programs will break away from the NCAA and form their own super conference, and that will change everything in ways that are hard to predict. We can expect that the smaller programs that get left behind will remain under the NCAA umbrella, but money will be much tighter. The NCAA will no longer have their cash cows.
You make a good point. Going to an employee model, may render smaller programs more unprofitable than they already are. Yes, maybe the program reaps an accounting off-set of tuition paid by the athletic program; but, you’re still looking at total payroll, including taxes and W/C and maybe housing allowance, being over $50k per player.
Smaller programs will not go to an employee model. They can’t afford it. They will remain with the NCAA, along with FCS, Divison II and Division III. This is why so many smaller programs are jockeying for space in the major conferences. They don’t want to be left behind. Unfortunately, most of them will be left behind.
@bayou Unfortunately, labor law doesn’t go by what the employer can afford. Now, the hourly wage that lower division schools are allowed to pay might be minimized and the work schedule too; but the classification to employee will not. It’s all or nothing. The NLRB ( LA division) mentioned the Pac-12 specifically, but also the NCAA. While, they also mentioned FBS football and D-1 basketball; once the boulder starts rolling down the hill it will not likely stop.
While I do believe the number of bowl games can, and should be pared down some (perhaps require winning record versus 6-6), a bigger change I would like to see is move the date a player can opt out for the draft or transfer portal – a large number of teams in bowls did not look like the teams that got them there
I don’t understand how you could change the opt out decision of a player. Could you expand on your comment?
Why would the number of bowl games need to decrease. As long as there are sponsors and an audience, I don’t see a problem at all. If you don’t want to watch, then don’t. Others obviously are.
There’s another factor hurting the bowl games that people seem to be ignoring. That’s the ties the bowl games have with the conferences. It forces the hands on some bowls by pitting two so-so teams in some cases. I recall the days of the past when there was competition between the bowls in selecting the teams. That competition resulted in some of the best college football games of all time. Bowl selection day was as exciting as player signing day. We all sat anxiously waiting the news on what bowl our favorite team was headed. Now in some cases, the bowl destination is known before the last game of the regular season, or at least it’s known that the destination will be one of 2 bowls. The expanded playoffs will result in some pretty good games. Make the remaining bowl games exciting by eliminating the conference ties. It might even result more players choosing to play in a competitive game over opting out of a How game.
SDS needs to add an editing option. The last sentence should have read “over opting out of a so-so game”.
I hope SDS reads these posts and will make this much needed change.