1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …

Georgia has a problem, everyone.

A problem not unlike prohibitive national championship game favorites of the past: Miami in 2002, USC in 2005, FSU in 2013 and Alabama in 2015 and 2016.

It’s basic numbers: When you play aggressive man-under defense — 2 safeties high splitting the deep field, cornerbacks and linebackers in man coverage — there’s no one to account for the quarterback.

The quarterback doesn’t have to be an elite, dynamic athlete like Vince Young, Deshaun Watson or Nick Marshall. He can be a tough, willing runner — with just enough fire and motivation — to absolutely break a defense.

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Georgia’s problem: TCU quarterback Max Duggan.

“Really good players keep me up at night,” Georgia defensive coordinator Will Muschamp said during Saturday’s Media Day for the Playoff National Championship. “Duggan is an outstanding player who can hurt you with his arm and legs.”

And that, everyone, is the rub in the road to Georgia repeating as national champions. Forget about the huge line, this game is everything.

Forget about the discrepancy in talent or all of Georgia’s 5-stars on defense or how the Dawgs under coach Kirby Smart have owned big games the past 2 seasons. Nothing is predictable when the last game of the season arrives.

Especially with a dual-threat quarterback — and no threat of weather impacting the game (hello, Georgia vs. Tennessee).

This is a controlled environment in a dome at SoFi Stadium, where weather won’t be an issue and the opponent is a hot, confident collection of players who just knocked off another big favorite in the Fiesta Bowl national semifinal. More important, the quarterback of that team was as hot as any quarterback in the country over the final weeks of the season.

A quarterback who makes throws accurately and on time, and — here’s the key — can make those throws off schedule while escaping pressure. And if he can’t make those throws, he can make hidden yards in the run game.

Duggan has rushed for 461 yards and 8 TDs this season, a perfect complement to his 3,564 passing yards and TD/INT ratio of 32/6.

When he’s not throwing accurately, he’s making back-breaking runs to extend drives.

This is the problem for Georgia’s man under defense, which hasn’t changed what it does since Smart arrived in Athens. The central focus of the Georgia defense is the front 4.

Everything they do defensively revolves around disruption in the run game and forcing poor decisions in the pass game — and the core of that philosophy is the front 4.

“They will stop the run with those (front) 4, sit in 2 high (safeties), rush 4 and dare you to throw the ball,” an SEC coach said. “When you have better athletes, better players, that’s an easy call for any coach. But whether they’re playing odd or even (fronts), they’re not as active as they were last year. That’s the opening. You either get them with a really good thrower, like Alabama last year or Florida (in 2020), or you get them with a quarterback who can stress you with his arm and legs.”

This isn’t some big secret; it’s the same thing that occasionally got Alabama’s defense over the years when Smart was Tide coach Nick Saban’s defensive coordinator.

Tebow. Newton. Manziel. Marshall. Watson. And now Duggan.

With the exception Tebow and Florida in 2008, none of those quarterbacks played for teams that were as or more talented than Alabama. But they had a difference-maker at quarterback — and as important, 1 receiver who could wreck coverage (more on that later).

They had quarterbacks who ran with a purpose on designed runs, and who broke contain and scrambled for key first downs to extend drives. Willing runners who extended time on the field for the defense (think number of plays, tired defense in the 2nd half), and forced changes in the way the defense acted — or in all of those cases, reacted.

It’s not only about avoiding 3-and-outs, it’s about using play calling to your advantage. It’s time on the field, and time off the clock.

Clemson ran 85 plays vs Alabama in the 2015 Playoff Championship Game, and lost by 5. A year later, Clemson’s goal in the Playoff Championship Game rematch was to hit 92 plays.

The Tigers ran 99 plays in 2016 and won by 4.

TCU didn’t need to reach 90 plays against Michigan because it got 2 defensive touchdowns and a goal- line stand — or a 21-point swing.

The longer TCU stays on the field with extended — scoring — drives, the more dangerous it becomes for Georgia.

“Playing with tempo,” Muschamp said. “Fatigue makes cowards of us all.”

2. Don’t forget the pass game

No matter how dangerous Duggan is in the run game, he’s widely underrated in the passing game.

Or as one Big 12 coach told me, “Don’t think he can’t put it right on (a receiver), because he can and does all the (expletive) time off schedule. The play breaks down and he makes those off platform throws that will absolutely gut you to the core. I’ve seen it over and over and over.”

Exhibit A: last week against Michigan, the Wolverines had closed to 41-38 early in the 4th quarter and had all the momentum. TCU was facing 3rd-and-7 from its 21, and Michigan decided to bring more (7) than TCU could block.

Bad mistake.

That move left 4 defenders in man coverage in the back end. Duggan took the snap and drifted back, then further back away from the rush before flipping an accurate throw to star wideout Quentin Johnston on a crossing route.

Michigan cornerback DJ Turner couldn’t tackle Johnston, and there was no safety — see: typical 2-high man-under coverage when you get home with 4 — to run him down in a 76-yard scoring play.

A series later, Michigan went 3-and-out, a short punt was returned 31 yards, and 3 plays later, a TCU field goal put the game out of reach.

Just like that.

“I’m sure Kirby has watched every (TCU) game this season,” another Big 12 coach told me. “He’s figuring out it’s not just Duggan. Johnston is a game-plan wrecker. Kendre Miller is 50-50 (injury status)? Wait until they get a load of (Emari) Demercado. Duggan alone is difficult enough. But they’ve got dudes on offense, and that’s a team that’s playing with a lot of confidence.

In 6 games against ranked teams this season, Duggan has thrown for 1,776 yards with 22 TDs (7 rush) and 3 INTs. He also rushed for at least 55 yards in 5 of the 7 games — including twice over 100 yards.

The big game arrives, and Duggan plays bigger.

3. It’s all about the QB, The Epilogue

TCU coach Sonny Dykes is a disciple of the Mike Leach Air Raid offense. His first move after taking the job last year was convincing Garrett Riley, his offensive coordinator at SMU, to join him in Fort Worth.

Riley played for Leach at Texas Tech, and like his brother and USC coach Lincoln, has expanded the Air Raid to include specific quarterback runs.

It’s still 4 verticles and crossing routes, and everything based on formations and repetition and doing it better than the defense. But there’s also the added element of the extra player for the defense to defend.

Lincoln Riley had rare quarterbacks at Oklahoma — Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts — who could extend the offense in the run game and make it more difficult to defend. Duggan isn’t as dynamic an athlete as Murray or Hurts, but Garrett Riley uses the same principles in the quarterback run game.

When you have a willing, tough runner who is difficult to bring down, there’s more space to cover. And when you have receivers who can catch and run, you may as well be defending acres instead of yards.

TCU has 3 receivers averaging at least 13.5 yards per catch, and the Horned Frogs lead the nation in plays of 50 yards or more and are 2nd in plays of 40 yards or more.

“Those 53 1/3 yards from sideline to sideline are difficult enough with the way rules are geared toward points and the offense,” a Big 12 coach said. “You get a guy like Duggan who can not only run, but run with power and run over and around guys, it feels like that field is as wide as it is long.”

Said another Big 12 coach: “It’s not the same thing. Mike (Leach) had you on your heels, but you knew if you could disrupt protection, there was a way out. Not with this (TCU) group. No way. Much more difficult to defend.”

4. Been there, done that

TCU has played 7 games against ranked teams. All 7 were 4th-quarter games.

Five of the 7 were last-possession games.

The Frogs won’t be intimidated by the stage or the enormity of the moment. They’ve won on last-second touchdowns and field goals, and defending last-second throws into the end zone.

A lot like Ohio State wasn’t intimidated by the moment against Miami in 2002. When an overachieving quarterback (Craig Krenzel) surprised the Canes with his ability to scramble and make plays in the pass game — and gain critical yards in the quarterback run game.

Duggan isn’t Vince Young or Deshaun Watson or even Nick Marshall. But he’s just dangerous enough (like Krenzel) to pull it off — especially with a team full of confident believers behind him.

It worked for Ohio State in 2002, and nearly worked for Auburn in 2013. The Buckeyes won a last-possession game, the Tigers lost a last-possession game.

The last thing Georgia wants is for this game to evolve into a last possession, winner take all game. It worked last week against Ohio State.

It may not this time around.

5. The Weekly 5

The top 5 matchups in the Playoff National Championship Game:

1. Georgia OTs Broderick Jones, Warren McClendon and Amarius Mims vs. TCU Edges Dee Winters and Dylan Horton.

2. Georgia QB Stetson Bennett vs. TCU CBs Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and Josh Newton.

3. Georgia TE Brock Bowers vs. TCU NB Millard Bradford

4. Georgia LBs Jamon Dumas-Johnson and Smael Mondon vs. TCU QB Max Duggan.

5. Georgia CB Kelee Ringo vs. TCU WR Quentin Johnston

6. Your tape is your resume

An NFL scout analyzes a draft-eligible SEC player. This week: Kentucky QB Will Levis (postseason eval):

“He’s all over the board right now. He’s a Day 1 pick, but there are so many varying opinions about what his ceiling is, and if he’s a Day 1 starter. This season may have hurt him some. I would’ve liked to have seen him play through some of the protection issues Kentucky clearly had, maybe make more throws off schedule, and make the tough play. Not to say he can’t or hasn’t, I just would’ve liked to have seen more of it.

“I love watching guys perform at a high level under adverse conditions. I want guys like that on my team. He’s a big guy, tough guy, can make every throw and makes it look easy in a clean pocket. It’s not always clean, and performing under duress is the difference between a 10-year guy and a guy that goes from team to team and is out of the league in 4-5 years. You can always look for negatives, but you’re nit-picking right now with him.”

7. Powered Up

This week’s Power Poll, and one big thing: post-bowl season grade:

1. Georgia: A. No matter what happens Monday night in Los Angeles, what Smart accomplished with a roster that lost 29 players (15 to the NFL Draft, 14 to the transfer portal) has been remarkable.

2. Alabama: A-. A non-Playoff season overshadows the fact that the Tide lost 2 games by a combined 4 points — on the last play of each game.

3. Tennessee: A. Considering where the Vols began and how it ended — with a backup QB setting the tone for 2023 — it’s a near perfect season.

4. LSU: A-. A lock for the ‘A’ category — especially considering what Brian Kelly inherited. It’s only going to get bigger and better.

5. Mississippi State: B+. What should’ve been the first 10-win season since 2014 (the Auburn game got away) and only the 4th in school history, ended with a tragic death of beloved coach Mike Leach.

6. South Carolina: B+. Don’t put too much stock in the Gator Bowl loss to Notre Dame. A gutted team held on as long as possible, but the program could be turning toward Spurrier-like performance levels.

7. Ole Miss: B. A solid season. No more, no less. Make no mistake, coach Lane Kiffin has raised the bar. A ‘B’ grade any other season would be cause for backflips.

8. Kentucky: C. Never figured out pass protection problems and could’ve won 10 games with a better offensive line.

9. Arkansas: C+. The loss to Missouri to finish the regular season was disappointing because the Hogs had the better team. The win over Kansas in the bowl game gave an ascending program some offseason momentum.

10. Florida: D+. New coach Billy Napier waited too long to build with the portal, and it left gaping talent holes on defense. Another 6-win season in 2023 will be a significant problem.

11. Missouri: D. The program needed a bowl win over Wake Forest — a game it could’ve won — to build momentum for 2023. Time to find a true thrower at quarterback.

12. Auburn: D. Only the massive save in November from interim coach Cadillac Williams saved this disastrous season — a disaster brought about by Auburn’s own hand.

13. Texas A&M: F. 4 of 7 losses were by a combined 16 points, but were done with as much talent as Georgia and Alabama. Coach Jimbo Fisher has hit a now or never moment in College Station.

14. Vanderbilt: C-. Got 2 SEC wins, and should’ve had another (3-point loss at Missouri). The postseason is a realistic goal in 2023.

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: What’s more important: high school recruiting or transfer portal recruiting? — Dale Gregory, Atlanta.

Dale:

High school recruiting — and it’s not close. Too many people saw what happened in the 2022 transfer portal cycle, and thought that’s what every season would be. Caleb Williams, Jordan Addison, Spencer Rattler, Jahmyr Gibbs, Quinn Ewers, Jaxson Dart, Jermaine Burton and on and on.

Now think about this season: Who in the 2023 transfer portal has the impact of any of those players? Travis Hunter? He was a lock to follow Deion Sanders wherever he landed.

The No. 1 quarterback is Sam Hartman, who had a fantastic career at Wake Forest in an offense that fit perfectly with his talent. Does Notre Dame completely change what it does and start running the slow mesh? Or will Hartman adjust to what the Irish do — and then what?

After that, the portal is a mishmash of hit and miss. Maybe it will work, maybe it won’t. Too many got caught up in what happened last season during the first full cycle for the portal, where the rules were clear and rules for NIL were, too.

Now it looks as though the elite of the game are staying put, for the most part. Which brings us back to high school recruiting.

It’s how you build a program, and how you sustain. It’s how NIL is used to change a program as quickly as possible.

Coaches (and fans) may not like it, but it’s not going anywhere. There will be players on most rosters — in some cases, many players — who will earn more money than starters who have played multiple years with a program.

It’s completely backward, and it’s not fair. And it’s still the best way to build a roster.

9. Numbers

79.93. We can talk forever about Duggan’s ability to stress Georgia’s run defense — and he still must deal with a Georgia defense that led the nation in run defense.

Georgia gave up 79.93 yards per game, and didn’t get (consistently) hurt from any dual-threat quarterback this season. LSU QB Jayden Daniels would’ve been the biggest test for Georgia, but he was severely limited in the SEC Championship Game with a injured ankle — and had -6 yards on 6 carries.

Maybe a better way to look at it is Bo Nix of Oregon. Nix, like Duggan, is a willing and hard runner. He’s even more athletic than Duggan. He had 37 yards on 8 carries — and the Ducks lost by 46.

Somewhere in between is likely where Duggan will be in Monday night’s game.

10. Quote to note

Georgia offensive coordinator Todd Monken on TCU’s 3-3-5 defense: “One coach told me it’s like a vacuum. You think it’s there, and then they just swarm on you.”