Nov 16, 2022; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks head coach Eric Musselman signals to his team during the second half against the South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Bud Walton Arena. Arkansas won 71-56. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
The SEC is starting to get shaken up. After falling to 1-5, Arkansas has rebounded. After losing at home to South Carolina, Kentucky has sprung back to life … although each has big nonconference games upcoming. Auburn is sneaking into the top of the SEC conversation, and 1 SEC school is likely staring at coaching vacancy. Here’s where the SEC stands.
Somewhere in the Hogs’ 1-5 SEC start, their struggles became pretty easy to spot. Yes, losing Nick Smith was critical, and before that, losing transfer big Trevon Brazile was more important than many first thought. But Arkansas had been dreadful in conference play in shooting and defending the 3. In those 5 conference losses, the Hogs had games where they shot 16, 13 and 20% from long range. They also had games where they allowed opponents to shoot 56 and 45% from 3-point distance. The good news is that the problem has been remedied, whether by playing 2 poor teams in Ole Miss and LSU, or by shooting 40% and 39% from distance in those games, or by holding the opponents to a combined 6 3-pointers made.
The Razorbacks finish the month with a trip to Baylor and a home game against Texas A&M. Both are opportunities to test whether Arkansas has really revived, or the schedule was simply favorable. Ricky Council and Anthony Black have been an excellent one-two punch, and if Arkansas ever gets Smith back, they could yet surprise the league and the nation. Saturday is a good test run in that quest.
Meanwhile, after the coaching obituary columns flowed freely after Kentucky’s still unintelligible home loss to South Carolina, John Calipari is proving rumors of his demise to be greatly exaggerated. Kentucky has rallied to 5-3 in SEC play and may yet play its way into a decent NCAA Tournament seed. The temporary loss of guard Sahvir Wheeler has forced scorers Antonio Reeves and CJ Fredrick into bigger roles. Meanwhile, Oscar Tshiebwe has looked more like the defending National Player of the Year, which of course, he is.
Kentucky has tightened its rotations and is using Wheeler as a spark off the bench, rather than the focal point of UK’s offense. The Wildcats shot 56% in Tuesday’s win over Vanderbilt and Tshiebwe has 67 rebounds in UK’s 4-game winning streak. Jacob Toppin is even showing signs of consistency, and Calipari could be preparing another of his late-season UK turnarounds, perhaps best illustrated in 2011’s run to the Final Four and 2014’s run to the national title game.
Meanwhile, Auburn has snuck its way to a 6-1 SEC start. After a puzzling loss to Georgia to open the month, the Tigers haven’t lost since, and if they can survive a home tilt with Texas A&M, they have an excellent chance to best West Virginia and enter February with a 7-game winning streak.
Auburn is holding opponents under 38% shooting and to a 22% mark from 3-point range. Johni Broome has been a pivotal plug-and-play transfer, and veteran role guys like Zep Jasper make Auburn a frustrating opponent. The Tigers might not be overwhelming, but they’ve been successful.
It can’t be much of a secret, but Ole Miss is pretty terrible. The 9-11 Rebels are the lone squad with 1 conference win that’s not led by a brand new head coach. Kermit Davis is now 73-72 overall at Ole Miss and 31-49 in conference play. He’s 0-2 in postseason play and 0-1 in NCAA Tournament games.
Davis won 20 games in his first year in Oxford, but hasn’t done so since. His predecessor, Andy Kennedy, won 20 games 9 times in 12 seasons (and won 19 games in one of the other 3). Look for new AD Allen Greene to make a move after the season. Ole Miss might struggle to exist in the upper echelon of the SEC, but given how the SEC’s younger coaches have performed, don’t be surprised if the Rebels go young.
BracketMatrix has Alabama tied with Purdue as the nation’s 2 teams both universally garnered 1 seeds in the 79 brackets comprising the site’s composite NCAA field. Tennessee stands as the top No. 2 seed in the projected field, with over a dozen projecting the Vols as a top seed, but on the other hand, a few bracket projectors looking at UT to fall to a No. 3.
Auburn sits solidly as a No. 5 seed and a team listed in every NCAA projection. Arkansas is forecast as a No. 8 seed and is likewise included in every NCAA field. Missouri is projected as a No. 10 seed and was chosen in 74 of the 79 projections, while Kentucky is currently a No. 11 seed and 1 of the final teams in the composite bracket. Florida and Mississippi State were both chosen in just 1 projected bracket, while Texas A&M remains outside any projected bracket.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Bama and UT as No. 1 seeds, Auburn as a No. 6, Arkansas as a No. 8, Missouri as a 10 seed, and Kentucky as a No. 12 seed. The Wildcats are Lunardi’s next-to-last team in the field.
Among a multitude of big games to watch are the SEC/Big 12 Challenge matchups. Here’s our highlights of the week to come:
Texas A&M at Auburn (Wednesday): The Tigers are a 4.5-point favorite, but this is a chance for the Aggies to pick up another big win and move to 6-1 in league play.
Kansas at Kentucky (Saturday): With the Jayhawks stumbling into Rupp, this game doesn’t feel quite as uneven as it did. But Kentucky could use a quality win as they still look to offset that Quad 4 loss to South Carolina.
Arkansas at Baylor (Saturday): Again, are the Razorbacks better … or have they just feasted off little fish? We’ll know soon enough. Baylor just beat Kansas.
Texas at Tennessee (Saturday): A pair of top-10 teams meet in the “Rick Barnes Bowl.” UT has a legitimate shot at a No. 1 seed and this win might push them up a notch in that pecking order.
View Comments
Auburn continues to get no respect - we're not flashy and don't have a true star, but we're playing great team basketball which is what takes you a long way in March.
SDS writers don't actually watch the games.
I can't decide what's more comical--their football articles or the basketball ones.
They have certainly been getting it done as of late, but their resume doesn't jump out at you. So far, their best wins are Northwestern, Florida, and Arkansas. They definitely look like the 3rd best team in the SEC but we'll see how good they really are now that the schedule heats up. The next 8 games will be telling.
And none of this matters until March.
Auburn has the 7th toughest schedule remaining in the country and the only team outside the Big12 in the top ten for that...Schedule is going to get harder for sure but they are playing the type of ball that will give them a chance to move up in seeding(or fall if the totally lay an egg). If Auburn goes 13-5 in conference with a win @WVU they have a nice shot at #4 or #3 seed depending on the wins...I think AUB loses @UT, @Bama, @UK. They need to pick up at least 1 home win against either UT or Bama and sweep TA&M. If they do that it's 13-5. The finishing stretch of @UK, @Bama, vs UT doesn't get much tougher than that.
And that's why I said we wont know how truly good Auburn is until this next stretch of tough games. Like the original poster said, Auburn hasn't been getting much attention and that's due to the relatively light schedule so far. Now that the big games are starting, they will be more in the spotlight. Going 8-4, by your estimates, against the remaining schedule will very tough, but doable.
"Meanwhile, Auburn has snuck its way to a 6-1 SEC start. "
Yeah, AU is garbage. All of their wins are "luck" (sarcasm).
"Texas A&M at Auburn (Wednesday): The Tigers are a 4.5-point favorite, but this is a chance for the Aggies to pick up another big win and move to 6-1 in league play."
AU is undefeated at home. You left that out.
WAS undefeated at home
Did you win a trophy?
What did your original post say about a trophy? Nothing. What did I say that was untrue? Nothing. Got in your feels?
I know the bar is low for SDS writers, but couldn't you at least know who the athletic directors are? Keith Carter is the AD at Ole Miss.
What are you talking about Joe? Allen Greene? Keith Carter has been the AD for about 4 years now. Come on now.
Arkansas has to go on a heck of a roll to grab an 8 seed. If the tourney started today there's no way to justify them being an 8.
Not really. They have a top 25 NET.
How would you justify them not being an 8 seed? The selections are based largely on net rankings and other metrics. Not as much on the eye test.
Joe, I'm disappointed to see Vanderbilt not mentioned other than being beat by Kentucky. Yes, Alabama, Auburn, and other teams are on a sudden incline, but do not leave out the Commodores simply because they don't have a Tshiebwe or Brandon Miller. Vanderbilt has improved their standings every year that Jerry Stackhouse has coached the Commodores, and had a strong performance in the NIT last season, beating the #1 seed Dayton in the second round. Do they have room for improvement? Of course, but so does Kentucky, so does Arkansas, and yes, so does Alabama who has had some close calls and has lost two games this season despite their #2 ranking. Do not be surprised when you see Vanderbilt make an appearance in the top half of the SEC by the end of this season. While the team is young and predominantly small guards who prefer shooting beyond the arc, they have still proven themselves to be a tough, aggressive, and competitive team. Many of their losses this season have been within single digits, some of whom with NCAA Tournament contenders from last season. Keep your eyes on the Dores next week as they play Texas A&M on Saturday and have their rematch with Alabama next Tuesday. Don't count out the Commodores when they have the hometown advantage in the SEC Tournament in March.
"Yes, Alabama, Auburn, and other teams are on a sudden incline"
Sudden? AU has been good for a few years now.
"Look for new AD Allen Greene to make a move after the season. "
Huh?
Wait. Ole Miss has a basketball team?
As a Mississippi State fan, no, the answer is no. Only way we have a conference win.
Is Arkansas about to do Arkansas things again? In 20-21, they lost 4 of 5 through January 16th, then went 12-1 the rest of the regular season and reached the Elite Eight. In 21-22, they lost 5 of 6 through January 6th, then went 14-2 the rest of the regular season and reached the Elite Eight.
This year, they lost 5 of 6 through January 18th, and are 2-0 since. It's a little more challenging this year with two key injuries and a tougher SEC, but it's worth keeping an eye on. Musselman tends to find the right combos and push the right buttons this time of year.
I don’t expect quite as strong a finish this season compared to the last 2 seasons due to the difficult schedule remaining and the youth on this team. I think Arkansas goes 6-5 or 7-4 the rest of the way. That gets them to 20-11 or 21-10 heading into the SEC Tournament. If Arkansas can get a #6 or #7 seed in the NCAA Tournament that wouldn’t be too shabby.